The Philosophy of Democracy

February 8th, 2010

It has struck me while following the constitutional crisis that erupted in Honduras June 25 last year, that many of those who are actors in the drama do not seem to have an understanding of democracy on a philosophical level. Without a normative foundation, they end up being blind to the long-term implication of their choices, and are guided only by the immediate benefit they see.

To overcome this problem I believe it is essential to strengthen the knowledge and understanding of democracy, not just in Honduras but in all of the Americas. Yes, including the U.S. of A., the Senate of which appears quite unable to function in a democratic way. In fact, I would propose that this task should be based on the most fundamental of levels, i.e., on the philosophical level.

There is an academic subject called Political Philosophy, which overlaps with what I propose. However, not all democracy is politics, and not all politics is democracy. Democracy is a method of decision-making also outside the political arena, i.e., in societies with voluntary membership and an idealistic purpose, and in corporations (although there the principle is one share = one vote, not one person = one vote).

Democracy and politics overlap, but a large part of democracy exists outside of the political realm.

Democracy and politics overlap, but a large part of democracy exists outside of the political realm.

Democracy in non-political contexts is fundamental in Sweden. Since my early teens I was exposed to the workings of democratic organizations, holding constituting meetings, yearly assemblies, board meetings, and so on. It was a way of cooperation that we took for granted. The formalities were key; although the actual work was quite informal, the formalities were rock solid and always solved any potential conflict before it could grow out of hand. In that sense, the democratic method of holding meetings and taking decisions was a tool for preemptive peace and conflict resolution.

Perhaps it is because the challenges of managing a club with 15 members, and a country of millions, are so different, that we don’t think of them as being related, both being aspects of democracy. Often, especially in the U.S., democracy is thought of as almost a synonym for politics. That in turn is thought of as the intrigues and manipulations of the specifically anglo-saxon form of governance (that has also been exported to Greece), of type “the winner takes it all”. This means that democracy and politics is largely focused on winning elections. In fact, in the U.S. this has gone so far that the very word politics has come to mean only that aspect, and not the art of making decisions.

As I wrote in Democracy for Dummies, the core purpose of democracy is of course to make decisions, not to get elected. It is to make decisions that have legitimacy, that are universally respected, and that can bring the issue forward while avoiding conflicts. The core process in democracy is therefore the meeting (in which the decision is taken), not the election of representatives (which is, incidentally, a means to a means to an end: we elect them to take part in meetings to take decisions on our behalf).

The two main types of democracies

In my opinion, for the purpose of classification and analysis, the most important distinction to make visa-vi democratic organizations is in those with voluntary membership, and those with involuntary membership.

Organizations with voluntary membership are democratic clubs and societies. This also includes typical political parties (note that U.S. political parties are atypical). In the typical case membership is open to everyone who wishes, but subject to some condition, such as paying a fee. In other cases it may be an invitation-only club, but that doesn’t mean it cannot be democratic.

Organizations with involuntary membership are those where membership is implicitly or explicitly required for persons in certain circumstances. The most obvious example is a country, in which the members are the citizens. Another example is a condominium association, in that you have to become a member (and be accepted as a member) to buy the apartment.

Obviously, organizations with involuntary membership in some ways infringe on the individual’s freedom. The very term “involuntary” conveys that. Of course one can leave it, but only if you give up something (e.g., the right to run for election, the possibility to live in a certain apartment). It is therefore only to be expected that most focus is put on this class of democracies.

It is also worth considering that certain rights can be delegated to an organization with involuntary membership, for instance the right to defend ones rights with force. That is the basis for the common defense, and for a police and judicial system. Note that it is not a requirement to have a police force, for instance. In pre-historic Scandinavia there were no policemen, no prosecutors, no justices, no jails. Instead, someone who had broken the law was dealt with in the same way and at the same meeting as all other business, with all the people voting. The worst punishment was to be declared an outlaw, to no longer to be protected by the law, as it was not a crime to kill an outlaw.

It seems to me that the traditional studies of political democracy are done from a biased position, i.e., from the implicit assumption that the state comes before democracy. But it does not have to be that way. What I propose is to study democracy as a subject in its own right, and see what that leads to in terms of the requirements on the state.

It also seems to me that this has some urgency to it, since there is a rather strong political movement towards re-inventing democracy, namely “The Bolivarian Revolution” a.k.a. “Socialism in the XXI Century”. This is of course the project of Hugo Chavez with the moral support of Fidel Castro. However, there seems to be no scholarly foundation under this building. It therefore risks wreaking havoc and creating utter chaos in the countries where it is implemented, such as Venezuela.

Honduras recently stopped this change in its tracks. It gives them breathing room for analysis and thought. I would propose that they use this opportunity to seriously analyze the philosophy of democracy, and come up with a workable solution to obtain the objectives without getting into trouble with human rights, loss of economic activity, and other predictable risks.

When will Zelaya’s supporters denounce violence?

February 6th, 2010

Over and over again, media supportive of the self-labeled “resistencia” in Honduras are reporting that they openly confess to being a militant group. For instance, yesterday a Canadian site reported one of the leaders, Rafael Alegria, as saying that their intention is “to convert ourselves into a militant political force which will work toward taking political power in our country” [my emphasis].

When will these Zelaya-supporters stop advocating militant solutions and start denouncing violence?

When will the international community stop supporting this terrorist organization?

It surely is a strange new world we are living in. The UN and OAS support a coupster – Zelaya – against the democratic government of Honduras. The U.S. demands amnesty for terrorists in Honduras (who caused millions of damages and even bodily injuries), while at the same time holding alleged terrorists without due process on the flimsiest of grounds in an illegally occupied naval base on Cuba.

Too many people dismiss the truth with the argument that they “know” it was a military coup, with no other argument than that it is “self-evident”. Well, it once was equally self-evident that the sun rotated around the Earth…

Footnote: Rafael Alegria was implicated last year in handing out large amounts of cash to rioters, in the form of US dollars that apparently came from Hugo Chavez. The total amounts of hard currency that showed up in the economy on the days of riots was so large that it could be counted in the banking system, in the tens of millions of dollars, it has been reported. (Ironically, this inflow of currency partly offset the negative effects of the sanctions imposed on Honduras, by providing an alternative source of dollars for paying foreign debts.)

MSM lägger locket på om Honduras

February 4th, 2010

Det är nu den 4 februari 2010. Dagens Nyheter har inte skrivit en enda notis om krisen i Honduras sedan den 21 januari kl 6 på morgonen. Det var någon timme efter att jag skrev att Obama orsakade den akuta krisen genom att i praktiken ge klartecken till Zelaya att göra vad han ville.

Parantetiskt kan nämnas att tre läsare i kommentarer till den sista DN-artikeln har påpekat att texten är felaktig: Valet var inte extrainsatt utan ordinarie. Det finns också blogglänkar till artikeln (vilka DN inte visar) som säger samma sak. Trots detta låter tidningen den felaktiga uppgiften stå kvar. Liksom att de kallar det en kupp.

Sedan dess har mycket hänt, varav åtminstone ett halvt dussin stora nyheter. Men DN har inte med ett ord nämnt något av detta.

Inte att USA drog in visum för ytterligare ett antal personer, vilka tog det som en hedersbetygelse och ett bevis på att de är patrioter och inte medlöpare till USA.

Inte att militärerna frikändes från ansvar för att ha flugit Zelaya ur landet, vilket betyder att högsta domstolen godtog deras försvar att de handlade utifrån ett övervägande om rikets säkerhet, i syfte att minimera riskerna, och baserat på trovärdiga hotbilder.

Inte amnestin som mer eller mindre tvingades på Honduras av USA (Micheletti föreslog en folkomröstning om amnestin, men den nyvalda kongressen gick USA till mötes).

Inte att en ny president har tillträtt, Pepe Lobo, eller att vid ceremonin i landets nationalstadium de tusentals människorna på läktarna buade ut alla som stött Zelaya, inklusive USA. De buade framför allt ut en utländsk president som var närvarande, Fernandez från Dominikanska Republiken, för att han (uppenbarligen som “målvakt” åt USA) hade kommit för att hämta Zelaya och förhindra att denne ställdes inför rätta i Honduras.

Inte heller har DN nämnt att den diplomatiska krisen nu är över och Honduras åter är erkänt av FN sedan den 1 februari, men att den ekonomiska krisen kvarstår och landet står på ruinens brant.

Framför allt har inte DN nämnt att orsaken till denna situation är att omvärlden gjorde ett fatalt misstag, och straffade ett land vars demokratiska institutioner bara följde lagen.

Och allra minst har de nämnt att denna draksådd nu används för att ytterligare hota demokratin i Latinamerika.

Lyckligtvis är inte latinamerikanarna så okunniga eller ointresserade av sin politiska verklighet, utan stora delar har genomskådat den så kallade bolivarianska revolutionen, och dess så kallade socialism i 21:a århundradet för vad det är: En strategi för att bryta ner de demokratiska institutionerna och rättsstaten genom att ersätta beprövade institutionella system med nya, baserade på pöbelvälde. Denna strategi är naturligtvis inte ny, det är bara namnet som är nytt. Samma strategi har använts av tyranner sedan de gamla grekernas tid, och ända fram till nazister och kommunister i vår egen tid.

Så varför skriver inte DN om detta? Jag förutspådde redan då jag startade denna blogg i början av juli förra året att då till slut MSM (mainstream media) inser att de haft fel, så kommer de inte att medge det, utan bara att lägga locket på och sluta skriva om Honduras.

Dragon’s teeth sown in the UN now ripe

February 2nd, 2010

Things should be called by their right names. It is not just a tremendous injustice, and injury, to the people of Honduras to call the constitutional deposing of a president – who was violating the constitution and the other branches of government – a “coup”, but it is also a dangerous precedent.

This precedent has already been put to use in anti-democratic propaganda. In an article yesterday, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is reported as accusing “radical sectors of the opposition of planning an institutional coup to depose of president Hugo Chávez.” They accuse them specifically of attempting the “Honduran plan, which is nothing else than an institutional coup,” according to vice president of the party in the eastern region, Aristóbulo Istúriz.

Note that they are no longer claiming that it was a military coup in Honduras; not even in this Cuban news outlet. If neither Cuba nor Venezuela calls it a military coup, then at least that argument is won for Honduras.

From the ashes to the fire

This, however, just brings us from the ashes to the fire from the perspective of risk to democracy. Consider the PSUV argument closely:

According to [PSUV], the enemies of the government are waging a campaign to win the legislative elections of September 26, which would enable them to carry out their plan.” The plan is described as follows: “They want the Attorney General to press charges against Chávez, and the Supreme Court to convict him…

In other words, the alleged plan that they are warning for is simply to impose the rule of law through democratic means. The ruling party in Venezuela thus labels this constitutional procedure in a democracy a “coup.”

It is Orwellian newspeak; democracy and the rule of law is called a coup, and the auto-coup that it would be for Chávez or Zelaya to prevent this, is called democracy.

If the elected congress and the judicial system depose the president in agreement with the constitution, they call it a coup.

Does it sound lunatic? Does it violate your sense of justice? Does it make you think that if there is no democratic and legal way to depose of the president no matter what he does, it sooner or later leads to tyranny?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, citizens of the world, this is what your own leaders opted for when they, in the United Nation’s General Assembly, condemned the legal removal of Zelaya from office as a coup.

The international community has set this precedent itself, by condemning Honduras in the UNGA.

One should not use strong language unnecessarily, because it undermines the power of the words. This is one of those occasions when that power is needed: A grave mistake was made in the United Nation’s General Assembly when they condemned Honduras. They took a hasty decision without access to relevant facts; through manipulation and newspeak they were deceived into legitimizing tyranny.

Every leader of every country in the world is guilty of permitting this mistake. Most through intellectual laziness, by voting as the group. Some have been actively involved, including Insulza of OAS, and some, like Obama, have unknowingly facilitated it through naiveté and lack of diplomatic experience.

Going forward, though, every leader that does not re-evaluate his or her position is doubly guilty, but no blame shall fall on the one who admits a mistake and tries to mitigate the harm caused by it. They need, however, to be made aware of the situation, since this is no longer in the news.

If democracy and the rule of law is dear to you, now would be a good time to take action to defend it. How? By speaking up, simply. Increase the awareness of this threat. When a critical mass is reached you will be successful, provided that you (still) live in a democracy.

Originally published 09:51, last edited 12:42.

English version of the PSUV statements in Brunei.

Draksådden i FN skördemogen

February 2nd, 2010

Draksådden ifråga var då FNs generalförsamling enhälligt fördömde den påstådda kuppen i Honduras i juni förra året. Nu är draksådden redo för skörd, av rättsstatens och folkstyrets fiender.

Prejudikatet har redan börjat användas. Enligt en artikel igår anklagar  Venezuelas förenade socialistparti (PSUV) “radikala delar av oppositionen för att planera en institutionell kupp för att avsätta president Hugo Chávez.” De anklagas specifikt för att förbereda den “honduranska planen, vilket inte är något annat än en institutionell kupp.” Uttalandena hänförs till vice ordförande för PSUV i östra regionen, Aristóbulo Istúriz.

Notera att varken denna nyhetssajt i Kuba eller det styrande socialistpartiet i Venezuela kallar händelsen i Honduras för “militärkupp”. Åtminstone på den punkten har Honduras nu vunnit debatten.

Ur askan i elden

Detta för oss dock ur askan i elden ur ett demokratiskt perspektiv. Fördömandet av Zelayas avsättande som en kupp i FNs generalförsamling vänds nu mot demokratins principer om maktdelning. Artikeln på Kuba visar med all önskvärd tydlighet vilken draksådd det var:

Enligt … Istúriz bedriver regimens fiender en kampanj för att vinna valen till den lagstiftande församlingen den 26 september, vilket skulle göra det möjligt för dem att sätta planen i verket.” Planen beskrivs så här: “De vill att riksåklagaren skall väcka åtal mot Chávez, och att högsta domstolen skall döma honom…

Med andra ord, den påstådda planen som de varnar för är varken mer eller mindre än att på demokratisk väg tillse att rättsstaten fungerar. Det styrande partiet i Venezuela kallar alltså denna grundlagsenliga process i en demokrati för en “kupp”.

Det är Orwellskt nyspråk; försvar av grundlagen kallas “kupp”, och försök att sätta sig över grundlagen kallas “demokrati”.

Om det av den folkvalda riksdagen tillsatta rättsväsendet avsätter presidenten enligt grundlagen, kallar de det för statskupp.

När det inte finns något sätt att avsätta en maktfullkomlig härskare så kallas det för envälde, och det är dit deras argument leder. Men, kära landsmän, vår egen regering är medskyldig till att ha försett dem med detta argument, tillsammans med alla andra länder i världen.

Det internationella samfundet satte själv detta prejudikat då de fördömde Honduras i FNs generalförsamling.

Beslutet i FN togs i otillbörlig hast, och utan att höra den anklagade. Ordföranden i generalförsamlingen var en gammal sandinist-revolutionär, D’Escoto; en god vän till Zelaya, Chávez, Castro. Det förtjänar kritik att inte Sverige eller andra anade ugglor i mossen, och försökte se till att få ett riktigt beslutsunderlag före omröstningen.

Det är emellertid aldrig för sent att ändra sig, och börja försöka rätta till konsekvenserna av ens misstag. För det första måste prejudikatet undanröjas, för om det får stå så hotas all världens demokratier.

För det andra behöver Honduras akut ekonomisk hjälp, eftersom detta misstag från världssamfundets sida har fört landet till ruinens brant. De försvarade demokratin för oss alla; nu måste vi göra rätt för vårt misstag och hjälpa dem.

Media om Venezuela: DN, SvD.

Fotnot: Sedan den 1 februari 2010 är Honduras åter erkänt av FN.

The “Moment of Truth” for Pepe

February 1st, 2010

The time has come for Pepe Lobo to form a Truth Commission in Honduras, as stipulated in point 6 of the Guaymuras dialogue (Spanish original, Swedish summary). This is the original text:

Con el fin de esclarecer los hechos ocurridos antes y después del 28 de junio de 2009, se creará también una Comisión de la Verdad que identifique los actos que condujeron a la situación actual, y proporcione al pueblo de Honduras elementos para evitar que estos hechos se repitan en el futuro.

Esta Comisión de Diálogo recomienda que el próximo Gobierno, en el marco de un consenso nacional, constituya dicha Comisión de la Verdad en el primer semestre del año 2010.

The agreement does not stipulate how the commission should be created, just what its purpose is and when it shall be created (the first half of 2010). The purpose is to “identify the acts that led to the present situation, and to propose to the people of Honduras elements to avoid that these deeds will be repeated in the future.”

From what has transpired so far, it seems clear, though, that OAS was actively involved in the events that led up to the violation of the constitution by the executive; and so was the U.S. of A. It thus seems rather self-evident that those two have a vested interest in getting a seat in the Truth Commission in order to prevent it from getting to the truth. The OAS and the U.S. therefore ought to be excluded even from consideration. The same goes for all allies of Venezuela, and even Costa Rica, since Oscar Arias obviously must have been an accomplice in the mediatic pyjamas charade.

In spite of this, the new president Pepe Lobo seems to be contemplating granting OAS a role in the commission. If he wants to make sure it fails, that would be a good strategy. If he, on the other hand, really wants to promote democracy and the defense of the republic, he is shooting himself in the foot.

To me, having followed this closely for 7 months, there seems to be some pretty obvious conclusions to draw from this. However, any conclusion I may have drawn is only tentative, as I have not been able to interview anyone in any official way, only off the record and on condition of anonymity. That is why I proposed the Truth Commission in the context of the San José talks, where it was subsequently introduced by the Micheletti side.

Let me repeat that: The Truth Commission was proposed by the side representing the democratic institutions of Honduras.

It is therefore with apprehension I see this spectacle unfold, by which the OAS – surely supported by the U.S. – apparently tries to bury the whole enterprise, truth and all.

The Truth Commission as I envisioned it should be composed of Hondurans, and if there were to be any foreigners involved, it would have to be people that did not in any way, shape, or form take part in what happened before or during June 28.

If Pepe Lobo undermines this effort, then I would urge the truly democratic forces of Honduras to set up a non-governmental, independent truth commission, that can closely follow and constructively criticize the official one. This week is the “moment of truth” for Pepe Lobo.

Immature on democracy in the US Senate

February 1st, 2010

In a report by the ranking Republican, Senator Lugar, to the U.S. Senate committee on foreign relations, Multilateralism in the Americas: Let’s start by fixing the OAS, the Organization for American States is criticized for its failure in relation to the coups in Venezuela 2002 and Honduras 2009, as the report puts it. The OAS reacted when the military intervened, but not when the president violated the constitution. On page 10 it says: “In both Venezuela and Honduras, executive defiance of other government institutions provoked the breakdown of democratic rule.”

That sentence is very disturbing. It reveals a fundamental lack of understanding of the concept of separation of powers.

The Honduran Congress has shown a much higher degree of understanding of democracy than those staff writers in the U.S. Senate.

The Hondurans, unlike the Americans, understood that executive defiance of other government institutions constituted a breakdown of democratic rule – it didn’t provoke it, it was it.

I find it troubling that staff in the Congress of the United States of America have so little understanding for democracy. Then again, it does explain why they did not impeach president Bush XLIII, although there was prima facie evidence that he, just like Chávez and Zelaya, also violated his country’s constitution.

My recommendation would be to look at their own House first, so to say. How would the U.S. democratic institutions react if something similar were to happen here? If Obama would try to overthrow the Constitution, would you just sit idly by, Senator Lugar? Not that I think there is any risk, but it may be in order to contemplate the situation. The U.S. is a very young country and lacks domestic experience from these things. It is worth keeping this saying in mind: “You have to learn from other people’s mistakes, because you don’t live long enough to make them all yourself.”

Sweden has had some showdowns between the executive and the popularly elected parliament in its history. It should be perfectly clear that since no branch of government is above the other, a president who defies the other branches of government, beyond a certain point which reasonably would be the use of force against them, has lost any legitimacy and can be deposed as allowed for by the Constitution. This is precisely what Honduras did.

Once you can respond to how the U.S. would handle a crisis such as the one Honduras was faced with, then, Senator Lugar, you have the standing to make recommendations to the OAS, or to criticize Honduras.

Propaganda-video about Honduras

January 31st, 2010

A propaganda-video against the democratic government of Honduras has been uploaded to the Internet today. Here it is:

I am the first to criticize the police when they use unnecessary force, which some of them clearly did, e.g. outside the stadium after the football (soccer) game in July. Those acts must be investigated and prosecuted to the maximum extent possible, to establish an example.

However, the raw footage often shows the police and – especially – the military exercising admirable restraint in the face of violent demonstrators, who are using potentially deadly weapons by throwing heavy rocks at them. They should get credit for that, and the demonstrators – or rather, rioters – should be criticized for their violence, too. But the video is completely biased in that respect. Not a critical word against those who disturbed the public order.

The voice also makes a number of factually incorrect statements. First of all that it was a coup; the removal of Zelaya from office was in response to him attempting a coup, as I have shown in this blog, e.g. here. Also the number of people who showed up at the airport is exaggerated, by a factor 100 or so (5,000 was mentioned as recently as 3 days ago in international pro-Zelaya media, but the video says 500,000). The images shown seem to be from another occasion.

Towards the end the voice falsely accuses the police and military of having taken the universities. In reality, rioters gathered outside the university, and ran into it when the police came, while wantonly destroying private property, such as a car and a fast food restaurant. The video is practicing Orwellian newspeak.

A lot of the footage doesn’t tell much of a story at all, but there is one interesting part early on: From the airport, when Zelaya and Chávez tried to create a martyr. A man who is interviewed in the video says that the soldiers had blanks (the military say they had rubber bullets), and that only the officers had live ammunition. He therefore concludes that the young man who was killed by a bullet in his neck was shot by an officer.

However, it is interesting to listen to the sound from the video, where they were throwing stones (7 minutes in). There are many explosive sounds that appear to be from somewhat distant gunfire, judging from the suppression of the high frequency part of the spectrum. However, at about 7:50, 7:59, 8:02 etc there are explosions with the high frequency part of the spectrum preserved, indicating an origin quite close to the microphone. Moreover, the 7:50 explosion clearly has an echo. An acoustic analysis might be able to indicate where the presumed shooter was standing.

Just for the heck of it, I analyzed the sound in a computer program. The delay of the audible echo is 0.19 to 0.20 seconds. The air temperature on that afternoon was about 25ºC, so the sound velocity would have been ca 346 m/s. This translates to a distance of 66 to 69 meters. This is the distance by which the path gun – echo-object – microphone is longer than the path gun – microphone. Since we can see from the image where the cameraman is standing (at 7:30 he is in the median outside the Popeye restaurant, moving south), we can guess that the echo is from the buildings on that side of the street.

However, when looking at the sound waveform it turns out that there is also a strong echo after only 0.059 seconds, corresponding to 20 m. Taking that into consideration, my guess is that the shooter was in front of the camera in the picture below, some ten meters off the wall, among the rioters marked with a yellow oval.

Screen shot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby, with a double echo.

Screenshot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby in the video.

Of course, one would have to do a test shot and record the sound at that location, to determine with certainty where the shooter was standing. But, it seems highly unlikely that those three shots were fired by the military inside the airfield. This of course opens for the possibility that the young man who was shot dead died from a bullet fired outside the airport, by a rioter. If so, Chávez got what he wanted.

PS. Also the Amnesty International report is very thin on facts, the shooting mentioned in this video (just after the incident above, and allegedly with the producer of the video carrying the victim) being one of about 4. Actually, AI fails to mention any case that has already been solved. That, and the fact that they call it a coup without any attempt at justification, shows that it is a biased report. Much of the text is irrelevant since it does not relate to the political reality on the ground in Honduras. AI would be well advised to focus on how best to contribute to a better human rights situation, rather than to play politics and alienate those they are trying to influence. The report seems written to appease donors rather than to actually contribute to human rights.

How to recognize lying media

January 30th, 2010

This is a little how-to blog post. On numerous occasions during the Honduran crisis I have come across websites of newspapers with articles containing gross factual errors. For instance, Le Monde Diplomatique wrote yesterday that Micheletti got immunity for life as “congressman for life”. The truth is of course that it is a purely honorary title, and furthermore, nobody in Honduras enjoys immunity, not even the president.

I have noticed that quite a few newspapers on the left – who are worst at publishing lies – don’t have a comment feature, nor do they post blog pingbacks. Now, some in the center and right who have those features still from time to time print fake facts, but it is less of a problem since the reader can check the comments and blog links. There is usually someone who will point out an error and link to a verifiable source.

By now the reporting in international media is so saturated with falsehoods about Honduras that even right-wing media who supports the country often by mistake let them through. The lies dominate over the truth by a wide margin.

So my advice is, do not trust at all any newspaper that does not provide for reader input, and be very skeptical to those who do.

Epilogue over the crisis in Honduras

January 28th, 2010

This is a modest attempt at summing up the events that turned Honduras into Chávez’s el Alamein: the place where the advance of the Bolivarian revolution was halted.

Yesterday, mainstream international media declared the Honduran crisis dead after Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo, elected in the general and regular elections November 29, had been sworn in as new president. Most nations are expected to resume normal diplomatic relations in short order. The exceptions are some Latin American leftist countries, but due to the right wind blowing in the hemisphere now, several of those may very soon change color, and one already has: Chile. History will show that Honduras election result started the pendulum swinging the other direction, and that the misdeeds of Zelaya – and the undiplomatic support he got from Chávez and OAS – was the triggering cause.

What made Honduras the place where Chávez, with his leftist revolution, was to meet his Stalingrad?

Zelaya was elected in 2005 and took office in 2006. He passed a law for popular referenda, to increase popular participation in politics. Later, he took a strong turn to the left, joined ALBA (with Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, etc), and started arguing that to get more people involved one has to create “institutions for direct democracy.”

This is Chávez’s thing; move power from the traditional democratic institutions to local committees. A problem with this approach is that the legal protection for the individual risks getting undermined. For that reason the idea is opposed by defenders of the rule of law, which includes virtually the entire private sector. They started organizing against Zelaya.

Zelaya also met constitutional problems. He concluded that Congress didn’t have the authority to change the constitution in the intended way, and that a Constitutional Assembly therefore would be required. He tried to stay within the law by creating a poll on a referendum on creating a Constitutional Assembly. However, also this was challenged in court. Zelaya lost, and was ordered not to in any way, shape, or form continue with the idea of a Constituting Assembly, because only Congress can change the constitution.

It might seem self-evident that Zelaya would obey the Supreme Court, wouldn’t it? To understand why he didn’t, but instead said something like “What are they going to do? Arrest me? Let them come and arrest me!”, we have to look at what else went on.

In 2008 the candidates were getting ready to run for the presidential primaries. Two strong candidates from Zelaya’s Liberal party wanted to run, the president of congress, Roberto Micheletti, and the vice president of the republic, Elvin Santos. However, each tried to prevent the other from running by referring to the constitution, saying that he couldn’t run while holding that seat. It went to the Supreme Court, and it declared that a recent constitutional change that prevented Micheletti from running was unconstitutional, and revoked it. Thus the field was clear for him. Santos was less lucky. He ended up resigning as vice president in order to run (he later won the primary, but lost in the general elections to Lobo).

These maneuvers, this high pitched rhetoric, must reasonably have undermined the respect for the Supreme Court, as well as for the constitution itself. When Zelaya defied the Supreme Court and its interpretation of the constitution, he and his followers may not have realized that he had reached the shore of the Rubicon (if an army passed that river in Italy it was taken to mean that they aimed to overthrow the emperor).

The Honduran constitution does not have an impeachment clause, since there is no immunity. It is therefore up to the Attorney General to request an arrest order from the Supreme Court for the president. So Zelaya was right, the correct way to proceed would be for them to arrest him. He just believed they would never dare to do that.

Why did he believe they wouldn’t dare? This is where the U.S. comes in. On about 5 occasions leading personalities in Honduras approached Zelaya and tried to talk him into giving up the project instead of defying the Supreme Court. Obama’s ambassador, Hugo Llorens, appointed by Bush, participated in a number of those reunions. When talking proved futile, they considered using force. That would mean to have him arrested according to the constitution and the laws. Of course, he could not continue to be the acting president while sitting in jail, so someone else would have to take the helm. Since Santos had resigned, and the other two deputies were also out of the picture, the next person in the succession order was, by chance, Micheletti.

Llorens stayed in contact with Washington, and the Obama administration obviously kept the chairmen of the respective committees in Congress informed (CYA being an important principle). This is when Senator Kerry said “no,” he would not put up with it. He has been pointed out, unequivocally, as the one who put down the foot.

At this point, Llorens informs the Hondurans that if they carry out this arrest, the U.S. will call it a coup and not recognize the interim leader. (The legal research center at the U.S. Congress later reported that it indeed was legal, and thus no coup; Kerry objected loudly and demanded that they retract or change the report, but after re-assessing it, they instead confirmed their original conclusion.)

Here comes the really, really important part: Someone told Zelaya.

Whereupon he, of course, concludes that “nothing can stop this project except the Holy Virgin.” That’s what he told his staff, euphorically.

By now the Supreme Court had impounded the ballots for the poll and left them in the custody of the military. However, with the reassurance that he could not be stopped no matter what, Zelaya gathered a mob and went in person to take the ballots by force from the military base.

This is where he miscalculated. Until that moment, the balance weighed in favor of letting him remain in power. However, after using force to impose his will over the other independent branches of power, the Attorney General and the Supreme Court of Justice no longer had a choice. They had to arrest him, or they would have been derelict of duty.

Zelaya left the judicial and legislative branches no choice. They had a constitutional obligation to do what they did in response to his crossing the Rubicon, which was the storming of the air force base.

What has to be pointed out again is that if it hadn’t been for the U.S. effectively giving Zelaya a carte blanche, he would most likely never have crossed that line.

When the events played out – with the inevitability of something predicted by a seer in a Greek drama – and Micheletti was sworn in as the new president, he already knew that no country would recognize him as president. If the U.S. didn’t do it, no country would.

But he also knew that he had an obligation under the constitution – which he had sworn to uphold – to do it regardless. When he asked colleagues to work in his cabinet, he told them straight out that there is no chance that any country will recognize them, but in spite of that nobody turned him down. When he left office yesterday he did it as a national hero for the majority, and the final message was simple: Mission accomplished.


The politicians in Honduras have learned a lesson – hopefully – and that is to keep the rhetoric down, and that a “nuclear option” cannot actually be used since it hurts everyone. Hopefully some leftist US politicians will take away from this that one must never, ever, take a position that can be taken as a blank check for someone to violate laws. Next time, just listen politely but keep your mouth shut, will you? If you absolutely must say something, then tell all parties to just do what they know to be right, because in the end that is the best strategy.

“Tacka Micheletti!”, skrek folket då Lobo svors in

January 27th, 2010

Idag svors Pope Lobo in som ny president i Honduras. Då han i talet tackade president Oscar Arias från Costa Rica buade folket så det hördes ända till Miami (via webTV då). Likaså då han nämnde president Fernandez från Dominikanska Republiken, vilken förhandlade fram ett avtal enligt vilket Zelaya kan lämna Honduras och få politisk amnesti. Och återigen då han nämnde USAs ambassadör Hugo Llorens, och OAS, Organisationen för Amerikanska Stater. Då han däremot nämnde Hillary Clinton så var det en mera blandad reaktion, och slutligen då turen kom till Panamas president Martinelli så applåderade folket och han ställde sig upp för att ta emot hyllningarna.

Men sedan hände det mest anmärkningsvärda. Någon ropade “Tacka Micheletti!” och folket började skandera “Tacka Micheletti, tacka Micheletti!”. Men det gjorde inte Pepe. Inte en enda gång nämnde han med namn den man som genom sin heroiska men otacksamma uppgift räddade demokratin i Honduras, och såg till att valet vilket Pepe vann över huvud taget kunde hållas.

Sverige fanns på plats med en diplomatisk representation.

Manuel Zelaya flyger ikväll till Dominikanska Republiken, trots att han inte sökt eller fått politisk asyl. Han har fått politisk amnesti i Honduras genom ett belut i kongressen imorse, som undertecknades av presidenten direkt då han svurits in (redan i stadion!), men han är fortfarande efterlyst för bland annat korruption och förskingring av 1,5 miljoner dollar. Hur denna fria lejd hänger ihop med lagar och folkrätt har ännu inte rapporterats i Honduras. Högsta domstolens ordförande har antytt att saken kan komma inför honom om någon väcker talan, varför han inte vill gå in på juridiken.

Som en honduran skrev i en tidnings kommentarsutrymme: “Leve Zelaya – men så långt som möjligt från Honduras!”

Media: SvD, GP, AB,

Pepe Lobo faces challenges and opportunities

January 27th, 2010

When Porfirio Lobo Sosa is sworn in as president of Honduras right now, he is facing a huge challenge as regards the economy. On the flip side, he may have a more politically engaged populace than in a long time, and one that is prepared to rise to the challenge of transforming the nation into a modern welfare state of Western European style.

Let’s take a step back and look at the whole picture. The previously elected president, Manuel Zelaya, was elected on a platform that included the introduction of “institutions of direct democracy.” What did he mean with that term? If he really was thinking of an institution with a charter and elected officials, then it is an oxymoron to call it “direct democracy.” And he if was thinking of a self-selected group of people doing things together on the street level, he would be well advised to study up on history. It is getting uncomfortably close to the mob rule of the Nazi or Soviet systems, due to the lack of protection of the rule of law.

Nevertheless, Zelaya pushed ahead with this plan. He determined that in order for this to become reality a change to the constitution was required. According to him, the Congress could not pass that change, why a Constitutional Assembly had to be called. Unfortunately for Zelaya, the Supreme Court of Justice disagreed. They ruled that nobody else than Congress can change the constitution. Zelaya disobeyed the court, they issued an arrest order for him, and Congress replaced him. End of the procedural story.

Now that Honduras has a new president, let us look back again at Zelaya’s end game, and leave the procedural issue behind. This kind of direct democracy is what Hugo Chávez also promotes, calling it democratic socialism, but I still have not found any implementation of it. Until we see a bill, a text in a law, we can’t really know what the rhetoric means in practice. It seems increasingly probable that it is just a euphemisms for mob rule. The street-level support that tyrants need.

That is not what the Hondurans voted for, is it? Of course not.

There are real social issues to be solved in Honduras. It is now clear that Zelaya was a false prophet. His end game was not the right one, and his way of implementing it was unconstitutional. He probably meant well, so say even his detractors, but he lacked the capacity to select the right route and set the right course.

The good thing is that the events of the last half year when Micheletti took the helm, has proven to Hondurans that they can, that they have a choice, that it is not futile to strive for a better life in their republic. This profound change of attitude, of dignity, of determination, is the best resource that Honduras new president can get.

God bless.

Meida: A Honduran blogger.

Micheletti receives a hero’s farewell

January 27th, 2010

His last hour in office, president Micheletti is attending a mass in the Suyapa Basilica together with his cabinet, co-workers, and the Union Civica Democratica (UCD). He went there to thank God for helping him save Honduras democracy through the constitutional crisis created by president Zelaya.

When Micheletti arrived he was greeted with a 2 minute standing ovation.

Roberto Micheletti in the Suyapa Basilica in Tegucigalpa this morning.

Roberto Micheletti in the Suyapa Basilica in Tegucigalpa this morning.

Meanwhile, Hondurans are gathering at the stadium in Tegucigalpa for the swearing in of the next popularly elected president, Porfirio Lobo Sosa. Guests of honor include foreign presidents and dignitaries from a large number of countries (including Sweden).

Also meanwhile, the sickening distortions in foreign press continue. Such as the lie that Zelaya came to Costa Rica in pajamas. Could it have something to do with the fact that there were over 130 members of the press in Honduras on that date, with hotel room and rental cars paid for by Zelaya? Could there be hypocrisy in media, can reporters be bribed? Nah, that can’t be possible, they are the bulwark of truth, right?

Zelaya is granted amnesty for political crimes

January 27th, 2010

Honduras congress voted last night to give amnesty to politicians, for the political crimes committed in connection with then president Zelaya’s attempt at overthrowing the form of government. He openly ignored and even ridiculed the other branches of government, until the Supreme Court of Justice issued an arrest order for him, and Congress deposed him on charges of treason, among others. It is for those political crimes that he is now being given amnesty. The charges of corruption still stand.

The Congress has to vote twice for the amnesty to take effect. The second vote will take place at 6 in the morning today, i.e., in about half an hour.

The Nationalists, the president elect’s party (he will be sworn in at 9 AM today), voted in favor, while the Liberal party, to which Zelaya and the interim president Micheletti belong, mostly abstained (just one in favor and one against).

The amnesty does not affect the supporters of Zelaya who in riots have caused property damage. Nor does it affect the police and military who had to confront those riots.

The amnesty was pressed on Honduras by the U.S., apparently against the will of the majority of its people. However, by explicitly not including the corruption charges, drug trafficking, and other non-political offenses, the politicians have tried to thread the needle. The amnesty only covers the political crimes of members of the Zelaya administration, according to La Prensa: terrorism, sedition, treason, and crimes against the form of government. Also common crimes in connection with the political ones are covered by the amnesty: usurpation of functions, violations of the rights of functionaries, disobedience, and abuse of authority.

Congressman Ascencio said in the debate that the purpose is to bring real peace to the country, but the amnesty will not do that, why he voted against it.

Congressman Saavedra from the Liberal party, who was president of the congress for the last 7 months, said that they abstained from voting because the bill had not been open for public comments, and because the Truth Commission should be formed first so that it becomes clear who exactly it is who will benefit from the amnesty, since until today nobody considers themselves in need of any amnesty.

The small parties UD and PINU voted against the amnesty, UD because they believe the purpose of the amnesty is to favor those who deposed Zelaya, not Zelaya. UD got less than 2% of the votes in the last election.

In my modest opinion, this amnesty is very bad for the country. It will be used abroad, by news agencies like AFP (Agence Faux Propagande?) as proof that there was a coup d’état, even though this has been proven wrong in the supreme court. Furthermore, it does not cover those poor souls who, believing the international media’s assertion that it was a coup, went out in resistance to the alleged coup and violated the laws. They are left facing justice for their crimes. They, the small people on the streets, are left responsible for the mistakes and/or deliberate lies of international media! Shame on the liars, shame on those who pressed this disgraceful amnesty bill on Honduras.

There appears to be no limits. Many international media have never told the truth about the events around June 25 to 28, 2009. Some foreign media, e.g. Chinese Xinhua, even go so far as to bold-faced lies, such as to claim that the amnesty applies also to the military. If there is anything everyone should learn from this, it is that you cannot trust media, you have to investigate for yourself.

Anecdotally, foreign investors were looking favorably on investing in Honduras as this year started, but they put the plans on hold when Lobo signed the deal with the Dominican president, giving Zelaya free passage away from Honduras and justice. Now, even worse, I would think. What are the chances of getting him to stand trial for the extraordinarily large corruption in his government? Pepe Lobo has – already before he took office – squandered most of the capital of trust that Micheletti had built up in the population for the government.

If what the international community wanted was to make sure that Honduras remains a third world recipient of aid and producer of cheap goods, then they have probably succeeded. Unless, that is, the Hondurans stand arm in arm, push back, and demand accountability. I hope the UCD, Union Civica Democratica, continues to hold the president’s feet to the fire.

Footnote: On his last day in office, president Micheletti yesterday signed a bill into law that makes Honduras leave ALBA, the Chavez-led group of countries that also includes Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, etc.

Recommended: Como se salvó la democracia en Honduras (La Prensa), Mel Zelaya was not wearing pajamas (La Gringa’s Blogicito).

Zelaya prepares to leave Honduras

January 26th, 2010

The time is approaching for Zelaya’s departure from Honduras, this time with his tail between his legs. Even as Pepe Lobo will take over as president in less than 15 hours, Zelaya does not dare to face justice. Some hero for the left!

Let it be clear that Zelaya was not deposed for switching from a liberal to a communist platform in the middle of his term – although he did – but for attempting a coup d’état, an autogolpe. The poster below is from Zelaya’s new political base, representing (according to the last election) at the most a few per cent of the population.

Poster from Zelaya's new political base.

Poster from Zelaya's new political base.

This movement does not recognize the last election. They consider the democratic government of Honduras an “oligarchic dictatorship,” regardless of who is the president. Their one and only goal is to overthrow the form of government. They do not limit themselves to legal methods in their fight. In fact, they do not recognize the laws of the republic, and they do not recognize the authority of the forces who uphold law and order. They won’t tell you any of this to your face, but it follows from their positions.

This is Zelaya’s political base in Honduras. This is the “democracy” the world is supporting.

Meanwhile, the Honduran Congress, hard pressed by foreign powers (read: U.S.A.), has started debating an amnesty bill again. Hondurans don’t want it, mostly because they want to see Zelaya to pay for his alleged crimes, but the “resistencia” because they want to see Micheletti to pay for his alleged “military coup” (even though it has now been proven in court that it was no coup, but that does not sway the “resistencia”, since they don’t recognize the supreme court either).

In foreign press the amnesty bill is presented in a completely different light: As something invented by the “coupsters” to protect themselves.

To me, it thus seems that the amnesty bill is a sword forced onto Honduras by the U.S. with the intention that they fall on it. I sure hope they see through this scheme and do what is best for the country: Take a stance for the rule of law, and transparency.

The question of responsibility can wait until the Truth Commission, agreed to in the Guaymuras dialogue, has been formed. What’s the urgency?