All posts by Ulf Erlingsson

PhD in Physical Geography, former environmental consultant in Scandinavia and Central America, researcher on paleogeography and the end of the ice age, and of littoral processes and sediment. Was National Globalizations Issues Coordinator for Kucinich for President 2004. Believe in Liberal Democracy with strong rule of law and respect for human rights, including minority rights, as a condition for peace and prosperity. Opposed to socialism, since socialism typically fails to protect fundamental human rights of privacy and property, and thus leads to corruption and the concentration of power.

Pirates of the Caribbean

Pirates of the Caribbean will decide the fate of the OAS—and their own future on the international arena. On Thursday June 23rd, the OAS will vote. If they fail to activate the Democratic Charter against the patently genocidal regime in “Bolivarian” Venezuela, the organization will lose all international credibility. The countries in whose hands it is to decide the vote are the Caribbean ones. They are also the ones who gave the Spanish language the word “filibustero” from their ways (filibustero comes from Dutch fribuiter which means free-looter in English and fribytare in Swedish, and refers to pirates who operate under the premise of take what you can). In these days they take blood-money from the genocidal regime in Caracas, so their moral has not improved. The vast majority of the people in the Americas, something like 90%, live in countries that support activating the Democratic Charter. But 0.7% of the population has over 38% of the vote and thus the power to protect the genocidal regime of Maduro. What’s more, 9 of those so-called countries have the same head of state, Queen Elizabeth II, so much of the shame will fall on the queen of the English if they fail to exercise their responsibility to protect the Venezuelan people against Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide. The rest of the Americas would be wise to sideline those countries in any future organization of American states, because they would obviously have failed the test of being mature enough to operate on the international arena. Maybe they could be given one vote between all of them, like the 50 states of USA have.

These 13 countries have 38% of the vote, well above the 33% that is needed to shield the genocidal regime in Caracas. In fact, it's enough that 10 of them back the Maduro regime, and the 10 smallest represent only 0.2% of the population in all OAS countries.
These 13 countries have 38% of the vote, well above the 33% that is needed to shield the genocidal regime in Caracas. In fact, it’s enough that 10 of them back the Maduro regime, and the 10 smallest represent only 0.2% of the population in all OAS countries.

Responsibility to Protect

Nobody is allowed to commit crimes against humanity or genocide. They are international crimes and they are never prescribed. Furthermore, states have the responsibility to protect their citizens from these crimes. In 2005 the world community decided that if a state fails to protect its citizens from crimes against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing or war crimes, the international community has a responsibility to protect, and that the UN Security Council has a right to decide to intervene and override the sovereignty of that country.

But what to do if a state itself commits crimes against humanity or genocide, and the international community fails to act? Clearly as individuals we the people still have a moral obligation to act. When faced by a situation like the one in Venezuela, where the regime deliberately is starving its people to try to stave off a rebellion (like Stalin did in Ukraine in 1932/33, the original Holodomor), a situation where people have to choose between dying of starvation or taking up arms against the regime, and the regime is armed to its teeth while the population was disarmed years ago, plus the regime uses heavily armed criminal gangs called “colectivos” to spread terror against those who protest for food, what options do we in the civil society have?

All non-violent methods have already been tried, but non-violence does not work against a regime that does not care if dissidents die. In 2010 Franklin Brito went on a hunger strike until he died and what did the regime do?, they made sure he died. In 2014 unarmed people protested all over the country and the regime used live ammo, which provoked a response by criminals (the only civilians with guns). Apparently unreported by media, 55 soldiers were shot during the “non-violent” protests in legitimate self defense. How many of these soldiers were Cubans is not known, only that Cuba sent 60,000 troops to quell the rebellion.

The Venezuelan people is fully aware that the only way to get out from this tyranny is through the use of force, but they also realize that the regime advantage in weapons and armaments is a hundred to one or a thousand to one. It’s one of the worlds heaviest armed regimes, a criminal regime, against a population that does not even have the right to own weapons (although many criminals do anyway). So its criminals against criminals, with those wanting peace and the rule of law having no power whatsoever. Because they allowed themselves to be disarmed.

The first lesson is of course that The People should always make sure that they have a legal right to own weapons, to prevent tyranny. In my opinion hunting rifles that can function as sniper rifles is the best protection because they allow for the creation of a home guard milicia, and at the same time they are virtually useless for criminals. In places high in crimes they can also work for home defense with appropriate light load ammunition to prevent over-penetration. I’m talking bolt action or single-shot, not semi-automatic. For close encounters the milicia could use semi-automatic pistols, but since they are very sought-after by criminals it would make sense to restrict them more. The milicia could instead use pump-action shotguns, another weapon useful for home defense but of little use to criminals. An armed citizenry is crucial as a way to prevent internal enemies from taking over the country.

However, in the case of Venezuela this discussion comes too late. They already allowed themselves to be disarmed and invited the Devil by voting for Chávez in 1998. They are already facing crimes against humanity from their own (illegitimate to be sure) regime, including arbitrary detentions, torture, disappearances, assassinations, Holodomor (genocide by starvation) and Holodolencia (genocide by denying basic health services and medicines). The forces of repression include the police, the national guard (part of the military), and the Venezuelan version of the brownshirts, the colectivos, fanatics who ride on bikes and spread terror. They are used for propaganda reasons, to avoid pictures of uniformed personnel committing those acts of terror. The propaganda is a key ingredient in the regime’s arsenal, and it is used to avoid that the international community acts against its crimes against humanity.

In 2014 the non-violent uprising that was met with military force did not ebb out until the civilians ran out of ammunition. For over a month they had control over one state in Venezuela, Táchira. When the regime re-took control it was a full military operation with tanks, close air support, the works. The resistance still bills it as a non-violent uprising because it was not their choice to make it an armed conflict.

Now, starting last Tuesday, June 14th, the resistance called for rebellion again, with the call coming from Cumaná, Sucre state. This time everyone is clear that the rebellion must be armed and that the colectivos must be met with deadly force. The instructions to the civilians include to barricade themselves in their homes and to meet any intruder with force, colectivo or national guard, because they know from experience that their intent is to kidnap, torture, and murder.

In this situation the international community has a difficult choice: Do nothing and watch people being exterminated, or break the law to help them.

The OAS is prohibited from intervening, so the Democratic Charter is a paper tiger. And even so, it may not be activated since so many countries in the Caribbean area are political prostitutes who vote to defend the genocidal regime in Caracas, taking Venezuelan blood money.

The UN Security Council is the only international organ that is authorized to call for intervention, that is, actions that violate the national sovereignty. Note that even the air drop of food to starving people violates the national sovereignty. But it may be necessary very soon, since the regime is firm about not allowing humanitarian aid (it is also forbidden to send food or medicines to the country, if it is found in shipments it is confiscated and destroyed). But the UNSC is very unlikely to vote for such a resolution since China and Russia are traditional allies of the regime, and both have veto power.

This leaves only one avenue for international assistance and that is to smuggle help into the country. The things they need for survival are food and medical supplies, and to defeat the regime they also need ammunition as a minimum. But here one runs into ITAR, the rules prohibiting arms trafficking. So the unarmed and defenseless people can not be helped by the international community because of rules that were designed to prevent the bad guys from getting weapons. In this case, when the bad guys are in power, the rules instead help the bad guys commit crimes against humanity.

My conclusion is that the international community has a responsibility to protect the people of Venezuela and that this justifies certain violations of ITAR, since obeying by all the ITAR prohibitions of arms smuggling would aid and assist a Crime Against Humanity.

COMUNISMO es GENOCIDIO

Queda imposible instalar comunismo sin cometer un genocidio. El genocidio está en la fibra de la ideología del comunismo.

El odio es el primer paso al genocidio. Personas adoctrinadas con odio no sienten simpatía ninguna a las víctimas de genocidio u otros crímenes de lesa humanidad. Más bien sienten que lo están haciendo bien torturándoles, dejándoles morir por hambruna.

Los rusos no ayudaron a los ucranianos que estaban muriendo porque los consideraban infrahumanos. Las víctimas no pueden cambiar esa situación apelando a la simpatía, porque los victimarios ya no son capaces de sentir simpatía hacía ellos. Solo hay una respuesta viable, y es luchar por su vida.

Holodomor en Ucrania 1933
Holodomor en Ucrania 1933

Los victimarios solo pueden ser derrotados por la fuerza. Usar fuerza contra los que cometen un genocidio no solamente queda legítimo, sino que es un DEBER. No solamente es un DEBER para el resto del mundo, sino es un DEBER para las víctimas también. Nadie debe dejarse ser exterminado sin resistir hasta la muerte, y provocar el máximo daño posible para el victimario. ¡Confrontación total como un animal rabioso! Solo así se puede llegar a la humanidad de la otra persona – por medio del miedo.

El primer paso de la resistencia es hacerlo bien claro a los victimarios que las víctimas van a defenderse, que aún cuando saben que van a morir, van a provocar el máximo daño a los victimarios primero. De esa manera los victimarios saldrán de su burbuja de sentirse invulnerables, y vuelven a ser como seres humanos. Vuelven a pensar en su propia mortalidad.

Por eso los venezolanos tienen que dejar de tratar de buscar reconciliación con el régimen genocida. Más bien deben enfrentarles con un mensaje desafiante y con símbolos bélicos, para así sembrar miedo, el único antídoto al odio.

Ojo que la manera de enfrentarse a un régimen genocida es muy distinta a la manera de enfrentarse a una dictadura normal, lo cual se combate con lucha no-violenta. Pero contra un régimen genocida la respuesta tiene que ser mostrar los dientes. Son dos situaciones distintas que requieren respuestas distintas.

The Venezuelan Holodolencia

In Venezuela the regime is executing a deliberate policy of extermination by the denial of access to basic health care and medicines. This leads to a large amount of preventable deaths in many diseases, from tropical fevers leading to death by lack of acetaminophen, to cancer for lack of treatment in the early stages. The deaths are not random but are used as a political tool against dissidents. The regime is also executing a Holodomor, extermination by starvation, but that seems to be less effective, probably because in the tropical climate of Venezuela there can be many harvests a year; unlike Ukraine, where there is only one, and the regime successfully confiscated all seeds during the winter.

I suggest the term “Holodolencia” in analogy with “Holocaust” and “Holodomor”. Holocaust is from Greek and means “all burned”, and Holodomor is from Ukrainian and means “starvation-murder”. The word Holodolencia is created by keeping “holo-” from the previous words for genocide, and adding the Spanish word “dolencia” which means ‘disease,’ ‘illness,’ since the genocide consists of making a not very serious condition lethal by denying basic health care.

The method by which the regime is denying basic health care is as follows: First, declare that health care is a human right that all should have. Second, declare that the government shall be responsible for it, and create a national system but designed to support the regime base only. Third, take control over all imports and manufacturing of supplies to the private clinics, and deny them supplies and medicines so that they gradually stop functioning and have to cease their activities.

At present, the regime is prohibiting the import of medicines, it is actually forcing importers to burn medicines, and it is denying import for humanitarian reasons. Donated medicines that arrive to hospitals are ceased and destroyed. Predictably, the deaths are sky-rocketing. This Holodolencia may be more effective in Venezuela than the simultaneously executed Holodomor.

The Greatest Sea Journey Ever Made

One hundred years ago today, Sir Ernest Shackleton set out on a rescue journey from Elephant Island, the Antarctic, in the 22 foot lifeboat James Caird, to the whaling stations in Grytviken, South Georgia, over 700 nautical miles away (over 1300 km or 800 statute miles). With a crew of five sailors, supplies for 4 weeks, he set out in a rescue operation to get help for the rest of the crew who had been stranded in the Antarctic since their ship Endurance sank in the pack ice on November 21, 1915. The expedition had left South Georgia on December 5, 1914.

My grandfather was a whaler in Grytviken from 1919 to 1921 so I heard the stories directly from someone who had been on South Georgia—although he didn’t arrive until after Shackleton had left, and he left before Shackleton returned in 1922 only to die from a heart attack and be buried in Grytviken.

Launching the James Caird on Elephant Island, April 24, 1916.
Launching the James Caird on Elephant Island, April 24, 1916.

Miraculously the James Caird arrived to South Georgia after 17 days on the roughest ocean of the world, the Southern Ocean. This was beyond the Roaring Forties, this was the Screaming Fifties, as the whalers on South Georgia knew it. They had to ride out hurricane-force winds in view of the island before they could land. But they landed on the west coast, and Grytviken is on the east coast.

A smaller team of three made the crossing over the glacier-covered mountains, making the 51 km in 36 hours. From Gytviken a boat was sent to rescue the other 3, and the remaining 22 men on Elephant Island were rescued on August 30, 1916, with the assistance of the Chilean navy.

The journey from Elephant Island to South Georgia (Sydgeorgien).
The journey from Elephant Island to South Georgia (Sydgeorgien).

For more information about Sir Ernest Shackleton see this Wikipedia article.

By the way, Grytviken is a Scandinavian word that means “pot bay” and was so named because that’s where they boiled the whales. While whales were still processed on shore, there was government control over the harvest, but later in the 1920’s floating whaling stations were built, and that is what totally destroyed the whale populations. In the 1930’s and forward my grandfather, Knut “Attarparn” Nilsson, was an advocate against this form of whaling because he had seen first hand how harmful it was to the whale stock.

ANSWER coalition supports terrorists and genocide

I just received an e-mail from the A.N.S.W.E.R. coalition in which they invited me to an event in San Francisco tonight: “Direct from Venezuela: Family members of the victims of right-wing violence speak in the United States”. As all informed observers know, the regime in Venezuela is harboring and supporting terrorists, and as I wrote to the Secretary-General of the UN on April 7, the regime is at this moment engaged in a genocide by starvation, also known as Holodomor. In 2014 when people all over the country protested against the dictatorship, the regime replied with military force (including 60,000 Cuban soldiers in Venezuelan uniform), for instance this iconic case of a young woman shot in the eye:

Geraldine Moreno, Valencia, Carabobo, Venezuela. Shot in the eye by the military for peacefully protesting on February 20, 2014.
Geraldine Moreno, Valencia, Carabobo, Venezuela. Shot in the eye by the military for peacefully protesting on February 20, 2014.

Yet in spite of this blatant illegitimacy of the dictatorship in Venezuela, and their in-your-face crimes against humanity, the ANSWER coalition defends it. This proves without a shadow of a doubt, that the ANSWER coalition is a front for the Castro-Cuban regime, and thus an enemy propaganda organization.

Here is the start of the e-mail:

Start of the e-mail
Start of the ANSWER e-mail supporting a communist drug-smuggling genocidal terrorist dictatorship.

Note how ANSWER calls the country-wide peaceful popular protests against the communist dictatorship “right-wing violence”. The e-mail continues:

E-mail from the ANSWER coalition
In the text, ANSWER misrepresents the protests using the same narrative as the communist dictatorships in Caracas and Havana. None of the 43 deaths were caused by the protesters; most were murdered by the regime, some by regime supporters, while the rest were accidents.

In the text, ANSWER misrepresents the protests using the same narrative as the communist dictatorships in Caracas and Havana. None of the 43 deaths were caused by the protesters; most were murdered by the regime, some by regime supporters, while the rest were accidents.

Venezuelans ask the UN to protect them from genocide

On April 7, acting as liaison to Operación Libertad Venezuela (OLV), I sent a letter to the United Nation’s Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The purpose of the letter was to call the organization’s attention to the fact that a genocide type holodomor (denial of food, and in this case also medicines) is being carried out against the population of Venezuela, and to ask the world community to make good on its commitment to protect the civilian population in the case of genocide and crimes against humanity. For Spanish translation click here: Carta Abierta al Secretario General Ban Ki-moon
Open letter photo

Knarkare finansierar folkmord

Venezuela styrs idag av världens kanske ledande knarkkartell. Den sydamerikanska regimen står för en stor del av kokainsmugglingen till Nordamerika, Europa, Mellanöstern och Afrika. Det är också en terroristregim som är lierad med världens ledande terroristorganisationer, från ETA i Spanien till Hezbollah i Libanon. Slutligen är de lierade skurkstater som Nordkorea, Kuba, Syrien, Iran, Ryssland och Vitryssland. Men det värsta med Venezuela är inte det jag nu nämnt, utan det de sysslar med på hemmaplan för att hålla sig kvar vid makten.

Venezuela håller på att genomföra ett folkmord typ “holodomor” (svältdöd) på samma sätt som Josef Stalin gjorde i Ukraina vintern 1932-33. Metoden är att konfiskera jordbruk och livsmedelsproducenter, och att kontrollera all import och distribution av mat. Detta har förberetts under många års tid. Vidare finns lagar på plats sedan åratal som förbjuder transport av mat, och att lagra mat hemma. Folket är därför helt beroende av att regelbundet (varje vecka) fylla på skafferiet. Sedan början av året har regimen nu introducerat det sista och avgörande instrumentet för att genomföra folkmordet genom svält: Selektiv distribution av mat.

Protestmarch i Valencia, Carabobo Venezuela igår. Banderollen säger "Maduro bär skulden för hungern".
Protestmarch i Valencia, delstaten Carabobo, Venezuela igår. Banderollen säger “Maduro bär skulden för hungern” (diktatorn heter Nicolás Maduro Moros).

Selektiv distribution av mat

Detta började i delstaten Yaracuy. Metoden är följande: Först går man dörr till dörr och genomför en “folkräkning”, där man låter hushållets ledare fylla i uppgifter om alla som bor där, inklusive ålder, utbildning, om kvinnorna har mens eller inte (för att veta hur många dambindor hushållet behöver per månad), och om de är aktiva eller inte i kommunistpartiet PSUV. Sedan utses en ansvarig person per gata. När mat, tvål, dambindor, schampo och så vidare kommer så packar denne påsar och delar ut en påse per hushåll ungefär varannan vecka, enligt guvernören för Yaracuy, León.

Men folket i Yaracuy där detta började, kommunen Independencia för att vara exakt, säger nu flera månader efter att detta började, att de ännu inte fått några matpåsar, att de svälter redan. De har förgäves försökt köpa mat, men mataffärerna har stängts av regimen. De har också tagit sig till delstatens huvudstad San Felipe för att söka mat, men bara för att finna att där finns inte heller någon mat att köpa. De har protesterat men mötts av polis som har arresterat dem, och inte släppt dem förrän de lovat att sluta protestera.

Efter att allt detta hände i Yaracuy började samma folkräkning i delstaten Carabobo, och sedan i Guarico. Då en bekant i den sistnämnda delstaten vägrade att ens ta emot formuläret sa de till henne att “om du inte skriver under så får du ingen mat, du har till i morgon att bestämma dig”.

Holodomor i Venezuela

Det råder inte skuggan av tvivel om att regimen i Caracas agerar i akt och mening att genomföra ett folkmord mot oppositionen. Jag kan lägga till ett annat exempel, en video som någon i hemlighet spelade in i delstaten Yaracuy, där en minister först talade om att de skulle bygga ett nytt center för cancervård, och sedan i samma andetag anklagade 5 tusen invånare på orden för att ha röstat på oppositionen i parlamentsvalet den 6 december förra året. Och så sa han, men emfas: “I fortsättningen kommer röstningen att vara övervakad. Gå inte själva att rösta utan vänta tills vi kommer och plockar upp dig, så att vi kan se vem du röstar på. Röstningen kommer att vara övervakad, och den som inte accepterar det får stå för konsekvenserna.”

Till saken hör att det finns vittnesmål om att det finns politiska kommissarier som bestämmer vem som skall får cancervård och vem som lämnas att dö; det är inte upp till läkarna att bestämma vem som får vård eller inte, utan det beror på patientens politiska åsikter.

Vad göra?

I många år har venezolanerna använt icke-våld för att försöka komma ur denna diktatur, och jag har själv följt denna kamp på nära håll sedan över 5 år. Principen för icke-våld är att undergräva stödet för regimen genom att vädja till människors samveten, vilket kräver att bryta igenom propagandan och visa sanningen. Tanken är att vanliga människor inte har resurser för en väpnad kamp, men att i ett normalt samhälle det finns resurser för en ickevålds-kampanj (framför allt kommunikationsmedel inklusive papper och bläck). Men regimen i Venezuela har slagit ner så hårt mot de resurser som krävs i en ickevålds-kampanj så att det blivit hart när omöjligt att bedriva opinionsbildande verksamhet i landet. Det är förbjudet att ta emot hjälp från utlandet, det finns nästan inget papper, maten får inte transporteras eller lagras och är dessutom hårt ransonerad, det är förbjudet att sprida denna typ av information på sociala nätverk eller mobiltelefon, valutans köpkraft är nästan noll, och så vidare. Folkmordet genom svält är denmest desperata taktiken för att slå ner allt motstånd: svältande människor protesterar inte och orkar inte slåss, och om några ändå skulle sticka upp så står regimen beredd med tungt beväpnade brottsliga gäng som inte tvekar ett ögonblick att slakta dem. Dessa gäng har till och med utrustats med svensktillverkade pansarskott typ AT4 från arméns arsenaler.

Ironisk nog, samtidigt som ickevåldets väg har stängts av regimen, så har den gjort våldets väg enklare genom att sprida så mycket vapen i landet. Venezuela är ett av världens 10 mest vapentäta länder vad gäller civila vapen. Det är alltså ungefär lika vapentätt som Sverige, fast medan de flesta vapnen i Sverige är långa och lagliga vapen, så är de flesta i Venezuela illegala handeldvapen.

Den vanligast kalibern bland dessa handeldvapen  lär vara 9 mm, följt av 38 Special och 380 ACP, samt den allestädes närvarande 22LR. Många på landet har också hagelbössor i 12 gauge. Antalet legala vapen minskade mycket då Chávez genomförde en kampanj för att minska antalet vapen bland allmänheten. (Senare delade de ut vapen till brottslingar.) Den största svårigheten är att få tag på ammunition eftersom det inte finns någon laglig möjlighet till det. Allt måste smugglas in vilket heller inte är lätt, eftersom grannländerna också har hårda restriktioner. Det finns alltså gott om vapen men ont om ammunition.

När det gäller militära vapen så använde landet förr FN/FAL, med 7.62×51 NATO, men har på senare år köpt en moderniserad version av AK47 med 7.62×39, samtidigt som de beväpnat en numerärt stor men utbildningsmässigt bristfällig milis med urgamla ryska och kinesiska Mosin-Nagant kolvgevär. Detta säger dock inte mycket, för den första försvarslinjen som regimen har är varken polis, nationalgarde eller armé, utan de tungt beväpnade kriminella gängen, knarklangare helt enkelt.

Och därmed återvänder jag till artikelns titel. De som köper kokain i Sverige eller andra länder, hjälper högst sannolikt till att finansiera det nu pågående folkmordet genom svält i Venezuela. Det första som riksdagen och regeringen bör göra är därför att förklara den pågående politiken i Venezuela ett FOLKMORD, samt uttala sin åsikt att folkmordet genomförs för att en knark- och terrorist-regim skall hålla sig kvar vid makten, och därför dra slutsatsen att den som köper knark stödjer folkmord och terrorism. Detta skulle öppna dörrarna för att dels ta i med hårdhandskarna mot alla inblandade, speciellt det finansiella systemet som skyddar deras stulna biljoner, men även att begära att FNs säkerhetsråd ingriper, för sedan år 2005 kan FN ingripa mot ett pågående folkmord med militär makt. Det skulle inte krävas mycket för att besegra den papperstiger som är Venezuela, med riktade aktioner i samarbete med den väpnade motståndsrörelsen.

Why there will be war in Venezuela

The people of Venezuela don’t want Maduro as president. In fact, the opposition has been a majority since 2002, but the regime has stolen the elections to hold on to power. In the parliamentary elections on Dec 6, 2015, the opposition won an absolute majority but only because the military threatened a coup d’état if the regime stole more votes than required to hold on to just under one third of the seats.

However, since then the executive has made it abundantly clear that it has no intention of respecting the parliament or the laws it passes, and has ordered the supreme court to strip the parliament of its powers. At the same time the regime continues its blatant violations of human rights, amounting to prima facie crimes against humanity, for instance the butchering on 28 persons in a mining town and the parading of the chopped up corpses in town to saw fear. Witnesses say that this was done by the governor’s police force.

Non-violent struggle could have been effective but it is failing in Venezuela for lack of resources. It is impossible to rally enough people because of lack of basic resources for communication, such as paper and ink for flyers. The rallying cries only reach a small minority, and most of them stay away out of fear. Social media have been stifled too, by a law making it illegal forwarding the messages from the non-violent resistance.

After a decade of harsh punishment for any dissent, the fear is deeply engrained. The punishment is a matter of life or death. Just yesterday an acquaintance died 5 days after running out of medicine. The regime is withholding medicines and urgent medical care from dissidents. This amounts to a genocide of political opponents. A Holodomor by starvation is also being executed, but with less success: The regime has tried to ration the food like Staling did in Ukraine in the winter of 1932, but Venezuela is a tropical country with harvests year-round in less than two months from sowing, so it’s hard to starve its people to death.

One of the reasons why Gene Sharp developed the non-violent method as an alternative was because it would be cheaper and more feasible, lacking access to weapons. However, in Venezuela the regime has managed to all but eliminate the availability of resources for non-violent struggle, while at the same time inundating the country with weapons. It has the world’s highest murder rate, and most of it is by handguns. The slum is full of weapons. They have told me it’s easier to buy military explosives in the slum than it is to buy food!

This combination of utter despair, and the armed struggle being relatively more feasible in relation to non-violent struggle, means that the balance has shifted. The non-violent struggle in 2014 was beat down by hard military force. The Venezuelan people had to make a strategic retreat in order to arm themselves. Unless the regime sees the fiery script in the sky and dramatically changes strategy, war is probably coming to a South American country near you pretty soon.

El régimen de Maduro solo tiene 10% de respaldo

El estudio Assessment of Voter Intent Using Three Different Polling Methods in Venezuela October 2015: Evidence for Fear Bias in Traditional Polls and Media Bias in Online Polls concluye que el respaldo actual para el partido oficialista en Venezuela es de tan solo 10% ±5%. El estudio se basa en tres encuestas paralelas, o mejor dicho, las mismas preguntas por tres métodos distintos para poder medir y corregir por sesgo. La evaluación de las respuestas revela:

    • Encuestas tradicionales (los que vez en los medios) tienen un sesgo, conocido como “factor miedo”, y por eso subestiman el respaldo por la oposición mucho
    • Encuestas en Facebook tienen un sesgo que se puede llamar “factor medio”, y por eso subestiman el respaldo por el oficialismo algo
    • El respaldo real por el PSUV en las parlamentarias es de 10% ±5%
Graph of intention of vote
El respaldo al PSUV es 10% ±5% dejando 90% ±5% para la oposición

Abstract

Las encuestas de opinión en Venezuela no son fiables, y tampoco lo son los resultados de las elecciones. Se ha argumentado que existe un “factor miedo” en las encuestas tradicionales. Por otro lado, ahora es fácil de realizar encuestas en Facebook, pero las respuestas en línea son muy diferentes tanto de las encuestas como de los comicios. Este estudio se realizó para evaluar la precisión de los diferentes métodos de encuesta, y para estimar el verdadero respaldo para el régimen. Para evaluar los factores que influyen en la respuesta, se hizo una serie de preguntas sobre diferentes temas en la puerta de domicilio, en la calle, y en Facebook. En cada caso se les aseguró el anonimato, pero el análisis sugiere que los encuestados desconfían del encuestador en diversos grados, dependiendo de método de encuesta. Un análisis de la correlación entre el uso de los medios de comunicación y las respuestas revela una correlación en ciertos temas que sesga los resultados de Facebook. Encuestas tradicionales suelen subestimar severamente el apoyo a la oposición, y las encuestas de Facebook suelen subestimar el apoyo al régimen. Sobre la base de este estudio, se estima que el verdadero apoyo al régimen en un 10% ± 5%.

Quiero enfatizar que los que participaron en ejecutar la encuesta dentro de Venezuela, violando las leyes de la dictadura, son héroes de la democracia. No puedo mencionar sus nombres porque pueden ir presos o peor, pero un día su Patria les agradecerá, Dios con ellos.

El manuscrito ha sido enviado a un periódico cientifico internacional con “peer review”. Como su evaluación no termina antes de las elecciones, y el resultado puede ser de interés público, respetando las normas el manuscrito como presentado ha sido “self-archived” en la página personal del autor.