Category Archives: ALBA

The Chavez-Castro alliance

Who is Peace Prize Winner Santos?

Many things can be said about Juan Manuel Santos, president of Colombia and former minister of defense who was rewarded with (not awarded, rewarded) the Nobel Peace Prize yesterday. But I’ll stick to what I personally know. In 2014, Santos’s military invited two acquaintances of mine, members of the Venezuelan non-violent resistance Operación Libertad, to visit a military base where the below photo was taken. Later Santos extradited these two to the dictatorship in Venezuela where they were thrown in the most infamous torture site, known as “The Tomb”. They are still there.

Gabriel Valles y Lorent Saleh en un base militar en Colombia en 2014.
Gabriel Valles and Lorent Saleh in a military base in Colombia in 2014. 

The last time I spoke to Lorent Saleh he told me about being invited to a Colombian military base.  Apparently this invitation was the cause for their extradition. But who is the commander in chief of the military? President Santos, of course. So he was ultimately responsible for their visit, and then he extradited them supposedly because of that visit(!).

Now as regards “peace”, for peace to be made there has to be war first. But Colombia is not in a civil war. Colombia is plagued by a terrorist group that is armed and supported by Castro on Cuba. Castro also supports and controls Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, and Venezuela cooperates intimately with FARC. So when Santos engaged in “peace negotiations” with FARC, with facilitation by Cuba, Venezuela, and Norway, it was really a negotiation to rewards a foreign-backed terrorist group. Santos is a quisling!

Norway was used as a pawn to give legitimacy to this charade. There is no reason to suspect that the Norwegians acted with malicious intent, because they are acting against their own national interest. You see, the bad guys in this deal are intimately allied with Putin’s Russia, so what Norway did—in the negotiations and in rewarding the quisling with a Nobel Peace Prize—indirectly helps Russia, Norway’s enemy.

La gran toma de Caracas

El 1 de septiembre la oposición en Venezuela, respaldado por la resistencia, ha llamado a tomar la capital Caracas. Dado que el país se ha convertido en una dictadura bajo un régimen genocida, no hay problema ninguna si el pueblo decida derrocar al gobierno en una revolución popular para establecer un gobierno nuevo. La Ley Internacional les otorga ese derecho, siempre y cuando cualquier uso de fuerza solo sea dirigido hacía el régimen y sus fuerzas de seguridad (regulares como irregulares). El llamado es a una marcha pacífica, lo cual indica una lucha no-violenta. Eso está bien, porque tiene más probabilidad de tener éxito.

La resistencia en Venezuela por años ha estado claro que es una dictadura y que la salida pasa por el uso de fuerza popular, o sea, un pueblo unido en la calle para presionar y exigir la salida del régimen. Mucho de esta acción indica que por ahí van, pero no todo. La oposición política en la MUD (mesa de unidad democrática) parece incapaz de mantener un mensaje creíble. Ellos llaman a esa marcha para supuestamente exigir un referendo revocatorio este año, lo cual es un derecho constitucional.

El problema con esta exigencia es que el régimen ya lo ha dejado absolutamente claro que no lo van a permitir, y todos los demás observadores han captado esta respuesta del régimen (la OEA, la UE, la ONU, la resistencia venezolana). Por alguna razón la MUD sigue clamando por un referendo revocatorio que todos saben no se va a dar, punto. Eso hace mucho daño a la credibilidad política de la MUD. Un elemento de la resistencia sospecha que la MUD en realidad está trabajando para el régimen. Los chavistas piensan que los de la MUD son mentirosos. La comunidad internacional se pregunta si la MUD sabe lo que está haciendo. El pueblo en general se encuentra entre mensajes cruzados y eso contribuye a la confusión dentro del país — y la confusión solo beneficia a la dictadura. Realmente no entiendo por qué la MUD mantiene esa linea y ese discurso que hace tanto  daño.

¿Por qué la MUD no habla claro y dice que “esto es una dictadura y tenemos el derecho bajo la ley internacional y el deber constitucional de restablecer la vigencia de la constitución”? Si dirían eso, a lo mejor todos los “duros”, los determinados, les respaldarían de inmediato en vez de posiblemente mantenerse en casa dudando sus intenciones. Es hora de hablar claro.

Indígenas en marcha hacía Caracas desde Puerto Ayacucho, Amazonas.
Indígenas en marcha hacía Caracas desde Puerto Ayacucho, Amazonas.

OAS considers activating Democratic Charter for first time

In a landmark meeting yesterday, the Organization of American States were summoned to an extraordinary meeting for the presentation of a report on the erosion of democracy in Bolivarian Venezuela, prepared by the secretary general of the organization, Luis Almagro. The meeting started with the point of order of approving the agenda, to which Bolivarian Venezuela, represented by its foreign minister Ms Delcy Rodriguez requested the word. She expressed that her country was opposed to the meeting being held. After the US made a point of order saying that Bolivarian Venezuela had gone into the subject matter when they were at a point in the agenda where only points of order were allowed according to the rules of OAS, and a couple of more violations to thus rule by Nicaragua and Bolivia, the vote was taken.

There was confusion because the chair had first understood that Bolivarian Venezuela requested a vote not to hold the meeting, but later their representative stated that she desired the vote to be on the approval of the agenda. Even though the chair explained this repeatedly the translation seems to have worked poorly, because Antigua and Barbuda had to ask again before voting, and Haiti later explained that they had voted on the original question and really intended to approve the agenda. In this table I present the vote and show the corrected vote of Haiti:

Do you approve the agenda?
YES NO Abstain
Argentina Antigua and Barbuda Saint Lucia
Bahamas Bolivia Trinidad and Tobago
Barbados Dominica
Belize Dominican Republic
Brazil Ecuador
Canada El Salvador
Chile Grenada
Colombia Nicaragua
Costa Rica Saint Kitts and Nevis
Guatemala Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Guyana Venezuela
Haiti*
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
USA

That makes 21 in favor and 11 opposed, with 2 abstentions, so the agenda was approved and the meeting started. The only point of order was that Luis Almagro, secretary general, presented his report. That was followed by comments by those who so wished. All countries availed themselves of that opportunity except those in italics in the above table. The complete video of the entire meeting (except 2 minutes before the formal start, due to a transmission error) with the original language (no interpreter voices) is available on the Operación Libertad Venezuela YouTube channel.

For Spanish speakers I recommend ‘The pearls of Delcy Rodriguez,’ “Las perlas de Delcy Rodriguez,” since nobody contributed more to prove the case that Bolivarian Venezuela is an authoritarian regime than the foreign minister herself. I don’t have the time to translate it but I will leave it open for user-contributed translations on YouTube.

What next?

The fact that the report was presented was a huge step forward, because the regime’s lies were exposed publicly. But this is not to say that the democratic charter was activated. This was just the secretary general informing the countries—his employers, effectively—that “here is something I think you need to look at”. Now they need to consider the facts and then it is up to the country holding the presidency of OAS to decide if and when to call a new meeting. At present Argentina holds the presidency.

The votes whether to approve the agenda or not in OAS on June 23, 2016. Countries supporting Venezuela voted no to try to prevent the report about erosion of democracy from being presented, here marked in red. Yellow marks abstentions and green in favor.
The votes whether to approve the agenda or not in OAS on June 23, 2016. Countries supporting Venezuela voted no to try to prevent the report about erosion of democracy from being presented, here marked in red. Yellow marks abstentions and green in favor.

Pirates of the Caribbean

Pirates of the Caribbean will decide the fate of the OAS—and their own future on the international arena. On Thursday June 23rd, the OAS will vote. If they fail to activate the Democratic Charter against the patently genocidal regime in “Bolivarian” Venezuela, the organization will lose all international credibility. The countries in whose hands it is to decide the vote are the Caribbean ones. They are also the ones who gave the Spanish language the word “filibustero” from their ways (filibustero comes from Dutch fribuiter which means free-looter in English and fribytare in Swedish, and refers to pirates who operate under the premise of take what you can). In these days they take blood-money from the genocidal regime in Caracas, so their moral has not improved. The vast majority of the people in the Americas, something like 90%, live in countries that support activating the Democratic Charter. But 0.7% of the population has over 38% of the vote and thus the power to protect the genocidal regime of Maduro. What’s more, 9 of those so-called countries have the same head of state, Queen Elizabeth II, so much of the shame will fall on the queen of the English if they fail to exercise their responsibility to protect the Venezuelan people against Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide. The rest of the Americas would be wise to sideline those countries in any future organization of American states, because they would obviously have failed the test of being mature enough to operate on the international arena. Maybe they could be given one vote between all of them, like the 50 states of USA have.

These 13 countries have 38% of the vote, well above the 33% that is needed to shield the genocidal regime in Caracas. In fact, it's enough that 10 of them back the Maduro regime, and the 10 smallest represent only 0.2% of the population in all OAS countries.
These 13 countries have 38% of the vote, well above the 33% that is needed to shield the genocidal regime in Caracas. In fact, it’s enough that 10 of them back the Maduro regime, and the 10 smallest represent only 0.2% of the population in all OAS countries.

Responsibility to Protect

Nobody is allowed to commit crimes against humanity or genocide. They are international crimes and they are never prescribed. Furthermore, states have the responsibility to protect their citizens from these crimes. In 2005 the world community decided that if a state fails to protect its citizens from crimes against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing or war crimes, the international community has a responsibility to protect, and that the UN Security Council has a right to decide to intervene and override the sovereignty of that country.

But what to do if a state itself commits crimes against humanity or genocide, and the international community fails to act? Clearly as individuals we the people still have a moral obligation to act. When faced by a situation like the one in Venezuela, where the regime deliberately is starving its people to try to stave off a rebellion (like Stalin did in Ukraine in 1932/33, the original Holodomor), a situation where people have to choose between dying of starvation or taking up arms against the regime, and the regime is armed to its teeth while the population was disarmed years ago, plus the regime uses heavily armed criminal gangs called “colectivos” to spread terror against those who protest for food, what options do we in the civil society have?

All non-violent methods have already been tried, but non-violence does not work against a regime that does not care if dissidents die. In 2010 Franklin Brito went on a hunger strike until he died and what did the regime do?, they made sure he died. In 2014 unarmed people protested all over the country and the regime used live ammo, which provoked a response by criminals (the only civilians with guns). Apparently unreported by media, 55 soldiers were shot during the “non-violent” protests in legitimate self defense. How many of these soldiers were Cubans is not known, only that Cuba sent 60,000 troops to quell the rebellion.

The Venezuelan people is fully aware that the only way to get out from this tyranny is through the use of force, but they also realize that the regime advantage in weapons and armaments is a hundred to one or a thousand to one. It’s one of the worlds heaviest armed regimes, a criminal regime, against a population that does not even have the right to own weapons (although many criminals do anyway). So its criminals against criminals, with those wanting peace and the rule of law having no power whatsoever. Because they allowed themselves to be disarmed.

The first lesson is of course that The People should always make sure that they have a legal right to own weapons, to prevent tyranny. In my opinion hunting rifles that can function as sniper rifles is the best protection because they allow for the creation of a home guard milicia, and at the same time they are virtually useless for criminals. In places high in crimes they can also work for home defense with appropriate light load ammunition to prevent over-penetration. I’m talking bolt action or single-shot, not semi-automatic. For close encounters the milicia could use semi-automatic pistols, but since they are very sought-after by criminals it would make sense to restrict them more. The milicia could instead use pump-action shotguns, another weapon useful for home defense but of little use to criminals. An armed citizenry is crucial as a way to prevent internal enemies from taking over the country.

However, in the case of Venezuela this discussion comes too late. They already allowed themselves to be disarmed and invited the Devil by voting for Chávez in 1998. They are already facing crimes against humanity from their own (illegitimate to be sure) regime, including arbitrary detentions, torture, disappearances, assassinations, Holodomor (genocide by starvation) and Holodolencia (genocide by denying basic health services and medicines). The forces of repression include the police, the national guard (part of the military), and the Venezuelan version of the brownshirts, the colectivos, fanatics who ride on bikes and spread terror. They are used for propaganda reasons, to avoid pictures of uniformed personnel committing those acts of terror. The propaganda is a key ingredient in the regime’s arsenal, and it is used to avoid that the international community acts against its crimes against humanity.

In 2014 the non-violent uprising that was met with military force did not ebb out until the civilians ran out of ammunition. For over a month they had control over one state in Venezuela, Táchira. When the regime re-took control it was a full military operation with tanks, close air support, the works. The resistance still bills it as a non-violent uprising because it was not their choice to make it an armed conflict.

Now, starting last Tuesday, June 14th, the resistance called for rebellion again, with the call coming from Cumaná, Sucre state. This time everyone is clear that the rebellion must be armed and that the colectivos must be met with deadly force. The instructions to the civilians include to barricade themselves in their homes and to meet any intruder with force, colectivo or national guard, because they know from experience that their intent is to kidnap, torture, and murder.

In this situation the international community has a difficult choice: Do nothing and watch people being exterminated, or break the law to help them.

The OAS is prohibited from intervening, so the Democratic Charter is a paper tiger. And even so, it may not be activated since so many countries in the Caribbean area are political prostitutes who vote to defend the genocidal regime in Caracas, taking Venezuelan blood money.

The UN Security Council is the only international organ that is authorized to call for intervention, that is, actions that violate the national sovereignty. Note that even the air drop of food to starving people violates the national sovereignty. But it may be necessary very soon, since the regime is firm about not allowing humanitarian aid (it is also forbidden to send food or medicines to the country, if it is found in shipments it is confiscated and destroyed). But the UNSC is very unlikely to vote for such a resolution since China and Russia are traditional allies of the regime, and both have veto power.

This leaves only one avenue for international assistance and that is to smuggle help into the country. The things they need for survival are food and medical supplies, and to defeat the regime they also need ammunition as a minimum. But here one runs into ITAR, the rules prohibiting arms trafficking. So the unarmed and defenseless people can not be helped by the international community because of rules that were designed to prevent the bad guys from getting weapons. In this case, when the bad guys are in power, the rules instead help the bad guys commit crimes against humanity.

My conclusion is that the international community has a responsibility to protect the people of Venezuela and that this justifies certain violations of ITAR, since obeying by all the ITAR prohibitions of arms smuggling would aid and assist a Crime Against Humanity.

COMUNISMO es GENOCIDIO

Queda imposible instalar comunismo sin cometer un genocidio. El genocidio está en la fibra de la ideología del comunismo.

El odio es el primer paso al genocidio. Personas adoctrinadas con odio no sienten simpatía ninguna a las víctimas de genocidio u otros crímenes de lesa humanidad. Más bien sienten que lo están haciendo bien torturándoles, dejándoles morir por hambruna.

Los rusos no ayudaron a los ucranianos que estaban muriendo porque los consideraban infrahumanos. Las víctimas no pueden cambiar esa situación apelando a la simpatía, porque los victimarios ya no son capaces de sentir simpatía hacía ellos. Solo hay una respuesta viable, y es luchar por su vida.

Holodomor en Ucrania 1933
Holodomor en Ucrania 1933

Los victimarios solo pueden ser derrotados por la fuerza. Usar fuerza contra los que cometen un genocidio no solamente queda legítimo, sino que es un DEBER. No solamente es un DEBER para el resto del mundo, sino es un DEBER para las víctimas también. Nadie debe dejarse ser exterminado sin resistir hasta la muerte, y provocar el máximo daño posible para el victimario. ¡Confrontación total como un animal rabioso! Solo así se puede llegar a la humanidad de la otra persona – por medio del miedo.

El primer paso de la resistencia es hacerlo bien claro a los victimarios que las víctimas van a defenderse, que aún cuando saben que van a morir, van a provocar el máximo daño a los victimarios primero. De esa manera los victimarios saldrán de su burbuja de sentirse invulnerables, y vuelven a ser como seres humanos. Vuelven a pensar en su propia mortalidad.

Por eso los venezolanos tienen que dejar de tratar de buscar reconciliación con el régimen genocida. Más bien deben enfrentarles con un mensaje desafiante y con símbolos bélicos, para así sembrar miedo, el único antídoto al odio.

Ojo que la manera de enfrentarse a un régimen genocida es muy distinta a la manera de enfrentarse a una dictadura normal, lo cual se combate con lucha no-violenta. Pero contra un régimen genocida la respuesta tiene que ser mostrar los dientes. Son dos situaciones distintas que requieren respuestas distintas.

The Venezuelan Holodolencia

In Venezuela the regime is executing a deliberate policy of extermination by the denial of access to basic health care and medicines. This leads to a large amount of preventable deaths in many diseases, from tropical fevers leading to death by lack of acetaminophen, to cancer for lack of treatment in the early stages. The deaths are not random but are used as a political tool against dissidents. The regime is also executing a Holodomor, extermination by starvation, but that seems to be less effective, probably because in the tropical climate of Venezuela there can be many harvests a year; unlike Ukraine, where there is only one, and the regime successfully confiscated all seeds during the winter.

I suggest the term “Holodolencia” in analogy with “Holocaust” and “Holodomor”. Holocaust is from Greek and means “all burned”, and Holodomor is from Ukrainian and means “starvation-murder”. The word Holodolencia is created by keeping “holo-” from the previous words for genocide, and adding the Spanish word “dolencia” which means ‘disease,’ ‘illness,’ since the genocide consists of making a not very serious condition lethal by denying basic health care.

The method by which the regime is denying basic health care is as follows: First, declare that health care is a human right that all should have. Second, declare that the government shall be responsible for it, and create a national system but designed to support the regime base only. Third, take control over all imports and manufacturing of supplies to the private clinics, and deny them supplies and medicines so that they gradually stop functioning and have to cease their activities.

At present, the regime is prohibiting the import of medicines, it is actually forcing importers to burn medicines, and it is denying import for humanitarian reasons. Donated medicines that arrive to hospitals are ceased and destroyed. Predictably, the deaths are sky-rocketing. This Holodolencia may be more effective in Venezuela than the simultaneously executed Holodomor.

Knarkare finansierar folkmord

Venezuela styrs idag av världens kanske ledande knarkkartell. Den sydamerikanska regimen står för en stor del av kokainsmugglingen till Nordamerika, Europa, Mellanöstern och Afrika. Det är också en terroristregim som är lierad med världens ledande terroristorganisationer, från ETA i Spanien till Hezbollah i Libanon. Slutligen är de lierade skurkstater som Nordkorea, Kuba, Syrien, Iran, Ryssland och Vitryssland. Men det värsta med Venezuela är inte det jag nu nämnt, utan det de sysslar med på hemmaplan för att hålla sig kvar vid makten.

Venezuela håller på att genomföra ett folkmord typ “holodomor” (svältdöd) på samma sätt som Josef Stalin gjorde i Ukraina vintern 1932-33. Metoden är att konfiskera jordbruk och livsmedelsproducenter, och att kontrollera all import och distribution av mat. Detta har förberetts under många års tid. Vidare finns lagar på plats sedan åratal som förbjuder transport av mat, och att lagra mat hemma. Folket är därför helt beroende av att regelbundet (varje vecka) fylla på skafferiet. Sedan början av året har regimen nu introducerat det sista och avgörande instrumentet för att genomföra folkmordet genom svält: Selektiv distribution av mat.

Protestmarch i Valencia, Carabobo Venezuela igår. Banderollen säger "Maduro bär skulden för hungern".
Protestmarch i Valencia, delstaten Carabobo, Venezuela igår. Banderollen säger “Maduro bär skulden för hungern” (diktatorn heter Nicolás Maduro Moros).

Selektiv distribution av mat

Detta började i delstaten Yaracuy. Metoden är följande: Först går man dörr till dörr och genomför en “folkräkning”, där man låter hushållets ledare fylla i uppgifter om alla som bor där, inklusive ålder, utbildning, om kvinnorna har mens eller inte (för att veta hur många dambindor hushållet behöver per månad), och om de är aktiva eller inte i kommunistpartiet PSUV. Sedan utses en ansvarig person per gata. När mat, tvål, dambindor, schampo och så vidare kommer så packar denne påsar och delar ut en påse per hushåll ungefär varannan vecka, enligt guvernören för Yaracuy, León.

Men folket i Yaracuy där detta började, kommunen Independencia för att vara exakt, säger nu flera månader efter att detta började, att de ännu inte fått några matpåsar, att de svälter redan. De har förgäves försökt köpa mat, men mataffärerna har stängts av regimen. De har också tagit sig till delstatens huvudstad San Felipe för att söka mat, men bara för att finna att där finns inte heller någon mat att köpa. De har protesterat men mötts av polis som har arresterat dem, och inte släppt dem förrän de lovat att sluta protestera.

Efter att allt detta hände i Yaracuy började samma folkräkning i delstaten Carabobo, och sedan i Guarico. Då en bekant i den sistnämnda delstaten vägrade att ens ta emot formuläret sa de till henne att “om du inte skriver under så får du ingen mat, du har till i morgon att bestämma dig”.

Holodomor i Venezuela

Det råder inte skuggan av tvivel om att regimen i Caracas agerar i akt och mening att genomföra ett folkmord mot oppositionen. Jag kan lägga till ett annat exempel, en video som någon i hemlighet spelade in i delstaten Yaracuy, där en minister först talade om att de skulle bygga ett nytt center för cancervård, och sedan i samma andetag anklagade 5 tusen invånare på orden för att ha röstat på oppositionen i parlamentsvalet den 6 december förra året. Och så sa han, men emfas: “I fortsättningen kommer röstningen att vara övervakad. Gå inte själva att rösta utan vänta tills vi kommer och plockar upp dig, så att vi kan se vem du röstar på. Röstningen kommer att vara övervakad, och den som inte accepterar det får stå för konsekvenserna.”

Till saken hör att det finns vittnesmål om att det finns politiska kommissarier som bestämmer vem som skall får cancervård och vem som lämnas att dö; det är inte upp till läkarna att bestämma vem som får vård eller inte, utan det beror på patientens politiska åsikter.

Vad göra?

I många år har venezolanerna använt icke-våld för att försöka komma ur denna diktatur, och jag har själv följt denna kamp på nära håll sedan över 5 år. Principen för icke-våld är att undergräva stödet för regimen genom att vädja till människors samveten, vilket kräver att bryta igenom propagandan och visa sanningen. Tanken är att vanliga människor inte har resurser för en väpnad kamp, men att i ett normalt samhälle det finns resurser för en ickevålds-kampanj (framför allt kommunikationsmedel inklusive papper och bläck). Men regimen i Venezuela har slagit ner så hårt mot de resurser som krävs i en ickevålds-kampanj så att det blivit hart när omöjligt att bedriva opinionsbildande verksamhet i landet. Det är förbjudet att ta emot hjälp från utlandet, det finns nästan inget papper, maten får inte transporteras eller lagras och är dessutom hårt ransonerad, det är förbjudet att sprida denna typ av information på sociala nätverk eller mobiltelefon, valutans köpkraft är nästan noll, och så vidare. Folkmordet genom svält är denmest desperata taktiken för att slå ner allt motstånd: svältande människor protesterar inte och orkar inte slåss, och om några ändå skulle sticka upp så står regimen beredd med tungt beväpnade brottsliga gäng som inte tvekar ett ögonblick att slakta dem. Dessa gäng har till och med utrustats med svensktillverkade pansarskott typ AT4 från arméns arsenaler.

Ironisk nog, samtidigt som ickevåldets väg har stängts av regimen, så har den gjort våldets väg enklare genom att sprida så mycket vapen i landet. Venezuela är ett av världens 10 mest vapentäta länder vad gäller civila vapen. Det är alltså ungefär lika vapentätt som Sverige, fast medan de flesta vapnen i Sverige är långa och lagliga vapen, så är de flesta i Venezuela illegala handeldvapen.

Den vanligast kalibern bland dessa handeldvapen  lär vara 9 mm, följt av 38 Special och 380 ACP, samt den allestädes närvarande 22LR. Många på landet har också hagelbössor i 12 gauge. Antalet legala vapen minskade mycket då Chávez genomförde en kampanj för att minska antalet vapen bland allmänheten. (Senare delade de ut vapen till brottslingar.) Den största svårigheten är att få tag på ammunition eftersom det inte finns någon laglig möjlighet till det. Allt måste smugglas in vilket heller inte är lätt, eftersom grannländerna också har hårda restriktioner. Det finns alltså gott om vapen men ont om ammunition.

När det gäller militära vapen så använde landet förr FN/FAL, med 7.62×51 NATO, men har på senare år köpt en moderniserad version av AK47 med 7.62×39, samtidigt som de beväpnat en numerärt stor men utbildningsmässigt bristfällig milis med urgamla ryska och kinesiska Mosin-Nagant kolvgevär. Detta säger dock inte mycket, för den första försvarslinjen som regimen har är varken polis, nationalgarde eller armé, utan de tungt beväpnade kriminella gängen, knarklangare helt enkelt.

Och därmed återvänder jag till artikelns titel. De som köper kokain i Sverige eller andra länder, hjälper högst sannolikt till att finansiera det nu pågående folkmordet genom svält i Venezuela. Det första som riksdagen och regeringen bör göra är därför att förklara den pågående politiken i Venezuela ett FOLKMORD, samt uttala sin åsikt att folkmordet genomförs för att en knark- och terrorist-regim skall hålla sig kvar vid makten, och därför dra slutsatsen att den som köper knark stödjer folkmord och terrorism. Detta skulle öppna dörrarna för att dels ta i med hårdhandskarna mot alla inblandade, speciellt det finansiella systemet som skyddar deras stulna biljoner, men även att begära att FNs säkerhetsråd ingriper, för sedan år 2005 kan FN ingripa mot ett pågående folkmord med militär makt. Det skulle inte krävas mycket för att besegra den papperstiger som är Venezuela, med riktade aktioner i samarbete med den väpnade motståndsrörelsen.

Why there will be war in Venezuela

The people of Venezuela don’t want Maduro as president. In fact, the opposition has been a majority since 2002, but the regime has stolen the elections to hold on to power. In the parliamentary elections on Dec 6, 2015, the opposition won an absolute majority but only because the military threatened a coup d’état if the regime stole more votes than required to hold on to just under one third of the seats.

However, since then the executive has made it abundantly clear that it has no intention of respecting the parliament or the laws it passes, and has ordered the supreme court to strip the parliament of its powers. At the same time the regime continues its blatant violations of human rights, amounting to prima facie crimes against humanity, for instance the butchering on 28 persons in a mining town and the parading of the chopped up corpses in town to saw fear. Witnesses say that this was done by the governor’s police force.

Non-violent struggle could have been effective but it is failing in Venezuela for lack of resources. It is impossible to rally enough people because of lack of basic resources for communication, such as paper and ink for flyers. The rallying cries only reach a small minority, and most of them stay away out of fear. Social media have been stifled too, by a law making it illegal forwarding the messages from the non-violent resistance.

After a decade of harsh punishment for any dissent, the fear is deeply engrained. The punishment is a matter of life or death. Just yesterday an acquaintance died 5 days after running out of medicine. The regime is withholding medicines and urgent medical care from dissidents. This amounts to a genocide of political opponents. A Holodomor by starvation is also being executed, but with less success: The regime has tried to ration the food like Staling did in Ukraine in the winter of 1932, but Venezuela is a tropical country with harvests year-round in less than two months from sowing, so it’s hard to starve its people to death.

One of the reasons why Gene Sharp developed the non-violent method as an alternative was because it would be cheaper and more feasible, lacking access to weapons. However, in Venezuela the regime has managed to all but eliminate the availability of resources for non-violent struggle, while at the same time inundating the country with weapons. It has the world’s highest murder rate, and most of it is by handguns. The slum is full of weapons. They have told me it’s easier to buy military explosives in the slum than it is to buy food!

This combination of utter despair, and the armed struggle being relatively more feasible in relation to non-violent struggle, means that the balance has shifted. The non-violent struggle in 2014 was beat down by hard military force. The Venezuelan people had to make a strategic retreat in order to arm themselves. Unless the regime sees the fiery script in the sky and dramatically changes strategy, war is probably coming to a South American country near you pretty soon.

El régimen de Maduro solo tiene 10% de respaldo

El estudio Assessment of Voter Intent Using Three Different Polling Methods in Venezuela October 2015: Evidence for Fear Bias in Traditional Polls and Media Bias in Online Polls concluye que el respaldo actual para el partido oficialista en Venezuela es de tan solo 10% ±5%. El estudio se basa en tres encuestas paralelas, o mejor dicho, las mismas preguntas por tres métodos distintos para poder medir y corregir por sesgo. La evaluación de las respuestas revela:

    • Encuestas tradicionales (los que vez en los medios) tienen un sesgo, conocido como “factor miedo”, y por eso subestiman el respaldo por la oposición mucho
    • Encuestas en Facebook tienen un sesgo que se puede llamar “factor medio”, y por eso subestiman el respaldo por el oficialismo algo
    • El respaldo real por el PSUV en las parlamentarias es de 10% ±5%
Graph of intention of vote
El respaldo al PSUV es 10% ±5% dejando 90% ±5% para la oposición

Abstract

Las encuestas de opinión en Venezuela no son fiables, y tampoco lo son los resultados de las elecciones. Se ha argumentado que existe un “factor miedo” en las encuestas tradicionales. Por otro lado, ahora es fácil de realizar encuestas en Facebook, pero las respuestas en línea son muy diferentes tanto de las encuestas como de los comicios. Este estudio se realizó para evaluar la precisión de los diferentes métodos de encuesta, y para estimar el verdadero respaldo para el régimen. Para evaluar los factores que influyen en la respuesta, se hizo una serie de preguntas sobre diferentes temas en la puerta de domicilio, en la calle, y en Facebook. En cada caso se les aseguró el anonimato, pero el análisis sugiere que los encuestados desconfían del encuestador en diversos grados, dependiendo de método de encuesta. Un análisis de la correlación entre el uso de los medios de comunicación y las respuestas revela una correlación en ciertos temas que sesga los resultados de Facebook. Encuestas tradicionales suelen subestimar severamente el apoyo a la oposición, y las encuestas de Facebook suelen subestimar el apoyo al régimen. Sobre la base de este estudio, se estima que el verdadero apoyo al régimen en un 10% ± 5%.

Quiero enfatizar que los que participaron en ejecutar la encuesta dentro de Venezuela, violando las leyes de la dictadura, son héroes de la democracia. No puedo mencionar sus nombres porque pueden ir presos o peor, pero un día su Patria les agradecerá, Dios con ellos.

El manuscrito ha sido enviado a un periódico cientifico internacional con “peer review”. Como su evaluación no termina antes de las elecciones, y el resultado puede ser de interés público, respetando las normas el manuscrito como presentado ha sido “self-archived” en la página personal del autor.