An editorial in the Washington Post writes about Obama’s decision to pressure Honduras to re-instate Zelaya as president, by cutting aid and visas:
“The administration’s action was not without risk. If the Micheletti regime digs in its heels, the result could be the very destabilization that the United States and its moderate allies hope to avoid.”
Given that the vast majority of Hondurans, all major presidential candidates in the upcoming elections, and all branches of government including the Supreme Court, support the country’s policy, no informed observer can reasonably believe that the pressure from the United States of America will lead to Zelaya being re-instated as president.
The Supreme Court of Justice of Honduras has in effect declared that Zelaya cannot be re-instated. What the United States of America is aiming for is therefore, in practice, nothing less than to defeat the sovereignty of the Republic of Honduras.
To defeat a sovereign nation without resorting to open war is called Cold War. The strategy has been said to be invented by Adolf Hitler, who successfully applied it to Austria and Czechoslovakia. Soon after, the Soviet Union applied it to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and – without success – to Finland, a country that heroically defeated the superpower in the Winter War, using inter alia Molotov cocktails.
It is true that the US government has not instigated the conflict like Germany and the Soviet Union did. However, the US ambassador to Honduras knew about the political developments leading up to Zelaya’s treason that got him ousted, and did not prevent the escalation of the conflict.
Obama wants to mend relations to Latin America, and for that reason he cannot let a coup d’état stand. However, since Zelaya was no longer president when he was expelled, having violated §239 of the Constitution, there was no coup.
What the US should do is to contribute to making the truth known, and – privately – to advice Zelaya to resign peacefully in return for amnesty, at least for his political crimes. That would be the wise thing to do.
But as Axel Oxenstierna wrote back in 1648, “If you only knew, my son, with how little wisdom the world is run.”
PS. Here is an English blog from inside Honduras, revealing how Zelaya is openly declaring his intent not to abide by the peace accord if he is re-instated: La Gringa’s Blogecito