Posts Tagged ‘Chavez’

EU Parliament Condemns Chávez’s words

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Earlier this month the European Parliament adopted a statement regarding Venezuela, and in particular the case of judge Maria Lourdes Afiuni, who has spent the last 7 months in jail totally against the law.

The statement, available in all EU languages, is largely devoted to the case of judge Afiuni, who was imprisoned just because Chávez said so, in his TV program. He made it clear that he wanted her in jail for 30 years, and that he wanted the Congress to retroactively change the law so she could be convicted to a longer penalty. The fact that no evidence has been found for her alleged crime has not motivated her release.

The European Parliament made it clear that they consider the rule of law in Venezuela to be suspended, and goes as far as to use the word condemn. The parliament “Condemns the public statements made by [Hugo Chávez], insulting and denigrating the judge, demanding a maximum sentence and requesting a modification of the law to enable a more severe penalty to be imposed; considers that these statements are aggravating the circumstances of her detention and constitute an attack on the independence of the judiciary by the President of a nation, who should be its first guarantor”.

In the statement the body also “Calls on the Venezuelan Government, with a view to the parliamentary elections on 26 September, to respect the rules of democracy and the principles of freedom of expression, assembly, association and election, as well as to invite the European Union and international bodies to observe these elections.”

It is not likely Hugo will comply. Just four days later, July 12, Chávez sent a, shall we say, diplomatic signal back to the EU, by having his political police arrest a man who has been his political opponent ever since Chávez was released from prison after his failed military coup in 1992: Alejandro Peña Esclusa.

Perhaps the neo-communists thought Mr Peña would be an easy target, given how he has been the victim of a slander campaign by communists for years. However, his arrest may have backfired, giving much increased global publicity about the true nature of the regime.

One year ago, when president Zelaya was deposed in Honduras, the star of Chávez was still high in Europe. Europeans in general (including media) did not believe the statements from Honduras that Chávez was behind the illegal plans of Zelaya, which is what caused the Supreme Court to order the arrest of the latter.

However, on July 26, 2009, I published an article on this blog that, it appears, brought a news story from Colombia to the attention of media in Sweden. The Swedish title of the article was, in translation, Chávez’s generals gave Swedish anti-tank weapons to terrorists. It was based on an article in Semana that cited facts found on the infamous FARC computer, and verified with the Swedish authorities, proving that weapons type AT-4 sold from Sweden to Venezuela had ended up in the hands of FARC, by the help of Venezuelan generals.

My modest contribution was simply to put this explosive news (pardon the pun) under the nose of the Swedish editors. Within hours all media had the story, and before lunch the government had taken the decision to stop indefinitely the export of Swedish weapons to Venezuela.

Today the star of Chávez in Sweden is decidedly much closer to the ground, if not already below it. The politically motivated arrest of judge Afiuni and Mr Peña Esclusa are perhaps the most visible cases, but they are just two out of many political prisoners in Venezuela today. Another problem is that the “arbitrary confiscation and expropriation, involving more than 760 enterprises since 2005 … undermine the basic social and economic rights of citizens” as the EU parliament put it.

Alejandro Peña Esclusa has argued since last year that the Venezuelans should learn from Honduras, that it is possible to peacefully stop a developing dictatorship by applying the laws and follow the constitution. Indira Ramirez de Peña has said in the TV program LA NOCHE in Colombia, after her husband’s arrest, that the example of Honduras scares Chávez, and that this is the reason her husband was arrested; to stop him from spreading the knowledge to the Venezuelan people of how they can defeat Chávez peacefully. Personally I would suggest that they also study and learn from how the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania made themselves free from the Soviet Union in the so-called singing revolution.

Venezuela is increasingly developing into a totalitarian state. Although it is not there yet, the developments and signals this summer have been very worrisome. If Chávez looses control over the parliament on September 26, he will no longer be able to rule as a dictator. There is nothing that indicates that he is prepared to take that risk. He is refusing to allow election observers from Chile, for instance. He has made it clear that he intends to exercise control over the only remaining opposition TV news channel, Globovision. Furthermore, even if the opposition wins, Chávez has already prepared to castrate the parliament by not giving them budget responsibility.

There is thus not much that speaks for Venezuela being a democracy today.

As if all this is not enough, Colombia has now presented evidence for large guerilla bases in Venezuela, belonging to FARC and ELN, organizations that are classified as terrorist groups by the EU and US, and which are major players in the smuggling of cocaine to Europe and North America. Chávez reacted with fury to the news, rather than – as a democratic leader would have done – promise to rout them out. This shows that beyond reasonable doubt Chávez is in cohorts with those narco-terrorists. In other words, Venezuela is a state sponsor of terrorism.

It would not surprise me if those who defended Chávez in relation to the crisis in Honduras last year are now mighty red-faced. Unless, of course, they already were red… If you go back and read comments on this blog, you may get a good laugh.

Chávez’s Dictatorship is Consolidated

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Venezuela’s president, or dictator – depending on whom you ask – Hugo Chávez Frías, has declared that according to him, the government now owns a minority stake of 25.8% in Globovisión, and insists that he has the right to appoint a director. The person he has in mind is Mario Silva, a talk show host on state TV who is using his platform to vilify Globovisión.

The majority owner of Globovisión, Guillermo Zuloaga, says to Miami Herald that the claim is “absurd” and that Chávez has his facts wrong.

Last month an arrest warrant was issued for Mr. Zuloaga and his son, who fled the country and are now, reportedly, considering seeking political asylum in the US.

Globovisión is the last TV-network critical of Chávez that remains in Venezuela. They reach 42% of the population with 24-hour news that has a critical angle to the regime.

On September 26 parliamentary elections will be held. If Chávez follows through on his intentions, there will be no free and fair elections, since free and fair elections requires a free debate, which requires that there is more than one voice in media.

Judging from the acts of Chávez this year, he is getting increasingly desperate in his efforts to remain in power. The last parliamentary elections 5 years ago the opposition unwisely boycotted, giving him an easy victory. This time they are instead united behind a single candidate in each precinct.

In February Chávez had the judge María Lourdes Afiuni imprisoned for setting a person free after three years without trial. He was released since the prosecutor consistently failed to show up at scheduled trials. Although the law says he couldn’t be held for more than two years, his release caused Chávez to get furious on TV, and order her incarceration. This caused the European Parliament to issue a condemnation of Venezuela on July 8, 2010 and calling for them to be invited to monitor the elections September 26. To which as we have seen, Chávez responded by figuratively giving them the finger, arresting his outspoken political opponent Alejandro Peña Esclusa on patently false charges, on July 12.

In March one of Chávez’s judges had an opposition politician imprisoned just for demanding an investigation (on Globovisión) of the accusations made by a Spanish judge regarding possible contacts between the Venezuelan government and drug-smuggling and terrorist organizations such as FARC and ETA.

Unless very drastic measures, and extreme pressure is put on Venezuela now, there seems to be no hope for democracy this year. There must be a free opposition media, and there must be independent election observers, both during the election campaign and the actual election and vote counting. However, remember Stalin’s words, “it is not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.” Venezuela uses its own, state-controlled electronic voting machines.

It may be that the only way the Venezuelan people can get rid of Chávez is through a legal process that does not involve elections. The fact that such a process can work, peacefully, has been demonstrated many times the last 20 odd years, from East Germany to Honduras. There is no reason why it would not work also in Venezuela.

Character-Assassination of Political Prisoner on Wikipedia

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Last edited 11:10, created 10:08 – Three days ago, the Italian Wikipedia article about Alejandro Peña Esclusa consisted almost entirely of clearly libelous and false claims. Over a period of 3 days the editors have refused to remove the libelous claims, blocked attempts by other users both to remove the libel, and efforts to introduce Peña’s self-confessed political opinions as a balance.

As reported the other day (English, Swedish), Alejandro Peña Esclusa is an anti-communist politician and activist imprisoned by Hugo Chavez on July 12, 2010, on manufactured and laughable terrorist charges, and held by a kangaroo court. The Wikipedia article about him in Italian was a pure hit-job, accusing him of attempted murder, for being a coupster, fascist, anti-semite, racist; most either without source, or sourced to statements by political enemies. A big effort yesterday to incorporate well sourced and NPOV (neutral point of view) material from the English Wikipedia article immediately got deleted. For good measure, the user got blocked from doing further edits. Another user re-inserted it and it again got deleted. The libelous text was reinserted. Little does it help that it was flagged as biased and lacking credible sources, when some of it was patently false and libelous.

Here is an example of the reinserted text, as it stands at 10:24 today: “Nel suo programma politico attuale propugna oggi il rovesciamento violento dei governi di centro-sinistra latinoamericani e il ritorno di dittature militari.” In translation, “In his present political program he is advocating the violent overthrowing of the center-left governments of Latin America and the return of military dictatorships.” No source is provided. In spite of repeatedly providing quotes from Peña, video-recordings where he himself states that he opposes violence, to the editors, they let the libelous statement stand, and delete the refutations. The quoted text mentions “center-left governments,” which should have been a warning flag for the editors, being the terminology of Hugo Chávez’s “Bolivarian Revolution” and “Socialism in the XXI Century.” Neutral observers rarely consider governments that socialize companies “center”.

A link to a video where Peña Esclusa himself declares that he denounces violence as a political method was provided, but rejected by the editors. Here is a quote from another website under his control: “the Venezuelans ought to become inspired by the Honduran model, and strive for a change of government as soon as possible, through pacific, democratic, and constitutional means–and not just electoral–to avoid a national tragedy” (my emphasis). To allow the unsourced claim to stand, in complete contradiction to his own clearly stated and sourced political ideology (in the translated article), is beyond incompetence. It is either deliberate libel, or libel through gross negligence, since the concerns had been clearly pointed out in the discussion page.

The history of the increasingly frustrating efforts to make the administrators (admin for short, i.e., the Wikipedia term for editors) agree to remove the libelous claims can be read on the discussion page and the history page on Italian Wikipedia.

The first mentioning of the problem was made on the discussion page 2010-07-17 18:01 CEST, with the following message: “This page appears to contain potentially libelous claims without source, that should be removed immediately – this needs to be addressed by an editor in Italian wikipedia.” The rules for articles on living persons in English Wikipedia (there is no Italian translation) clearly states that one should delete such text immediately, but out of courtesy a chance was given to the Italian users to correct the page first. When after 4 hours nothing had happened, all libelous and unsourced claims were removed. That only left one sentence in the article – which goes a long way to show how biased it was.

This delete was undone within 5 minutes by user L736E, an admin who in the discussion kept insisting that Italian Wikipedia had different rules than English Wikipedia, although he never managed to provide a link to the rules. This is his reply: “Sorry guy but in Wikipedia in italian there’s no such rule that “libelous claim should be deleted IMMEDIATELY”.” He later edited his reply to, “Sorry guy but “libelous claim should be demonstrated and presented as such.”

Among the libelous claims that he re-instated was this: “On April 12, 2002, Peña Esclusa participated in the failed coup d’état in Venezuela.” No source for this statement was given. The fact is that he was arrested and promptly set free. The judicial principles are that if the prosecution of a person is dropped, then he is to be regarded innocent, just as if he been declared innocent by a court of law. This sentence in the article was thus demonstrably libelous. Being from the person’s ideological enemies, the communists, it was also communist propaganda. There was thus every reason to either remove it, or rephrase the text to state that it is an accusation from his political enemies. But it had to be done immediately, not “mañana”.

However, when the communist propaganda-nature of the libelous statements was pointed out to admin L726E, he took the argument as a personal attack against him(!). As a result, another admin, calling himself Vito Giulio-Claudio at the time, blocked not just further edits but also all discussion and messages.

These admins claim that the Italian version of Wikipedia entirely lacks rules for protecting innocent persons against libelous attacks with unsourced statements the way the English one does. In their words, the English rules do not apply to them. But on the English page on Biographies of living persons, it says, “This page documents an English Wikipedia policy, a widely accepted standard that all editors should normally follow” (my emphasis). Their word normally links to a common sense clause, which instructs the editors to use common sense, based on the “Ignore all rules-rule,” which says, “If a rule prevents you from improving or maintaining Wikipedia, ignore it.”

The Italian admins thus have all the clout they need to stop the libelous attacks on Alejandro Peña Esclusa, but instead they chose to use their clout to keep the libel in place by avoiding fundamental changes.

The Wikipedia Foundation would be well advised to permanently block those irresponsible administrators who let libel stand, especially in a case like this, when the person’s life quite literally is in the balance–and just might depend on the veracity of that information.

Footnote: Wikipedia in June announced that they would open up some 2000 hitherto locked articles to make editing easier, including many biographies of living persons (source DN).

Example of Chávez’s propaganda, added 11:10: The new house organ of Hugo Chávez from 2009, Correo del Orinoco, has published an article in which they discuss a video of Alejandro Peña Esclusa talking in a church in 2007. In effect, what he is saying is calling for the congregation to follow the constitution and to protest peacefully. This is their way of demonstrating that Peña is a dangerous terrorist(!). If this is the most incriminating evidence they have, they have nothing. In other words, what the propaganda outlet suggests between the lines, is that to even be opposed to Chávez’s socialist revolution legally and peacefully is unacceptable, and deserves to lend a person in jail.

Ledande demokratikämpe kastad i Venezuelas “gulag”

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

I måndags kväll kastades Alejandro Peña Esclusa i politiskt fängelse av Hugo Chávez Frías, diktator i Den Bolivarianska Republiken Venezuela.

Om detta har jag ännu inte sett ett ord i svenska media. Skandal! Om han kan kastas i fängelse utan att det uppmärksammas, då kan vem som helst kastas i fängelse utan att någon bryr sig.

Vem är då Peña Esclusa?

Han gav ut en bok 1994 i vilken han avslöjade Chávez som en marionett för Castro på Kuba, och för den marxistiska knarkgerillan FARC i Colombia, vars uppgift det var att sprida marxismen över hela den latinamerikanska kontinenten. Kom ihåg att detta var bara 2 år efter Chávez misslyckade militärkupp, och långt före någon av dem hade ställt upp som presidentkandidater. Det gjorde de bägge två år 1998. Chávez vann.

Sedan dess har den nu fängslade ingenjören och demokratiförkämpen oavtröttligt försökt motarbeta den kommunistiska komplotten med alla till buds stående lagliga och demokratiska medel. Han är ledare för UnoAmérica, en paraplyorganisation för ca 200 ideella organisationer som slåss för att försvara demokratin i sina respektive länder över hela Latinamerika. Han deltar själv i opinionsbildning över hela kontinenten, till exempel i El Salvador där han varnade för länkarna mellan den gamla gerillan FMLN och Chávez. Trots det vann de, och en salvadoran figurerar i arresteringen av Peña Esclusa, som en påstådd terrorist som framkastade falska anklagelser om inblandning innan han gömdes undan på Kuba.

En av de mera uppmärksammade aktionerna var när Peña Esclusa i augusti 2009 anmälde Chávez till Internationella Brottsmålsdomstolen (ICC) i Haag, för hans inblandning i försöken att kullstörta Honduras statsskick, och för att senare, när försöket stoppades av landets demokratiska institutioner, ha hotat med militär intervention för att återinsätta Zelaya. För att ha gjort denna anmälan till åklagare vill Chávez ha honom dömd för landsförräderi.

Varför arresterades han?

Efter att i åratal förgäves ha försökt hitta någon anledning att fänglsa honom blev Chávez desperat, nu när valen den 26 september närmar sig och oppositionens styrka hela tiden tilltar. Därför kidnappade de en salvadoran vid namn Chávez Abarca i Guatemala och flög honom mot hans vilja till Venezuela, enligt dennes hustru. Enligt Venezuela kom han själv dit, inbjuden att genomföra terroristattacker, men utan att veta något eller ha några planer; det skulle han få på plats, sa han. Han pekade ut kontaktpersoner enligt Venezuela, och Peña Esclusa var en av dem. Innan någon annan kunde intervjua honom flögs han till Kuba och gömdes undan.

Alejandro Peña Esclusa förstod naturligtvis att han skulle bli arresterad, så han spelade in en video i vilken han presenterade sin version av sakernas tillstånd för världsopinionen (med engelsk text del 1, del 2). Hans hustru Indira Ramirez de Peña har redogjort för hur påstådda sprängämnen planterades i deras 8-åriga dotters skrivbord vid husrannsakan. Hon påpekade också det absurda i att hennes man skulle ha förvarat sprängämnen i sitt hem även efter att han på video talat om för hela världen att han förväntades att bli arresterad inom ett dygn. Lögnen är totalt absurd (se t ex det colombianska TV-programmet LA NOCHE i onsdags kväll, i vilket hon har sällskap med ex-president Micheletti via satellit från Honduras).

Den egentliga anledningen till arresteringen är naturligtvis som ett led i strävan att vinna valet den 26 september. Alla som vågar tala klartext är ett hot, och de tas om hand på det vis som diktatorer känner bäst: Med olagliga medel. Även majoritetsägarna i den enda kvarvarande regimkritiska TV-kanalen som når hela landet (42% av befolkningen) är efterlysta, men de har sedan länge flytt landet och uppges nu överväga att söka politisk asyl i USA.

Det råder inte längre någon tvekan om att Hugo Chávez Frías är en diktator. Och just så kallade Micheletti honom igår: Herr diktator Hugo Chávez. På en direkt fråga vad han tyckte om mannen svarade den honduranska ex-presidenten att även om Chávez kallar honom för “goriletti” så föredrar han att inte svara med samma mynt, för han vill “inte förolämpa aporna”.

På ett mera allvarligt plan så uttalade Micheletti sin bestörtning över den brist på reaktion som vi sett från människorättsorganisationer på detta uppenbara och mycket grava övergrepp. Han påpekade hyckleriet som vi ser, även i media och, verkar det, till och med hos regeringar, då de aldrig var sena att anklaga Honduras legitima regim för påstådda övergrepp utan att vänta på fakta, men samtidigt inte säger ett pip (eller som i APs fall bara framför versionen från Chávez propaganda) när Chávez begår uppenbara övergrepp mot mänskliga rättigheter.

Jag kan förstå varför Sverige kröp för Hitler, men varför krypa för Chávez? (Att vänsterpartiet stödjer kommunistiska diktaturer med skattepengar har naturligtvis ideologiska förtecken, men jag talar om de andra, i den politiska mittfåran.) Jag hörde också igår, men minns nu inte vem som sa det (möjligen hans hustru, möjligen Alejandro själv, kanske någon annan) att Brasiliens president Lula da Silva framstår som strategen, figuren i bakgrunden som drar i trådarna, medan Chávez är den som skickas fram i rampljuset. Det vore i så fall strategiskt klokt av da Silva, för ända tills då Zelaya tog sig in på deras ambassad i Tegucigalpa så hade hans politiska inställning inte riktigt kommit fram. Nu är den dock solklar. Brasilien under da Silva är lika rabiat som Den Bolivarianska Republiken Venezuela (som Chávez låtit döpa om den till), när det gäller Honduras. Fullständigt oresonabel är karln, bryr sig inte ett dyft om fakta. Lyckligtvis är det snart presidentval i Brasilien och oppositionen delar inte hans syn.

Varför tog jag upp Brasilien? JAS. Så länge Sverige tror sig kunna sälja JAS Gripen till Brasilien så har de (verkar det) veto-rätt över Bildts utrikespolitik. Tänka sig, det heter att vi skall ha egen vapentillverkning för att kunna ha en egen utrikespolitik. Istället böjer vi oss för Brasilien, en reell allierad till Kuba, Ryssland och Iran, förutom Venezuela.

Om priset är att vi låter en demokratiförkämpe ruttna i ett politiskt fängelse, och ett land som försvarar sin suveränitet med fredliga och demokratiska medel bli utkastat ur den internationella gemenskapen, ja då har vi ingen moral.

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Länkar: Också publicerad på NewsMill.
Metrobloggen.
DN skriver om FARC-anklagelserna, och uppgrävningen av Simon Bolivar, men inte om detta.

Eva Golinger, Venezuela’s paid “girlfriend”

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010

Edited 2010-07-13, originally posted 2010-07-12: During the defolding of the crisis in Honduras last year, someone posted a text written by Eva Golinger as a comment on this blog. I of course disapproved it, as it was stolen work, but I was impressed with the text nonetheless. So better late than never I googled her to see who this person might be.

I found out that she has been described both as a political prostitute and as a new Tokyo Rose.

It turns out she was born in the US of A, but with Venezuelan roots on her mother’s side, her Latin name thus being Eva Golinger Calderon. Wikipedia says she has a JD, a juris doctorate, from CUNY in 2003. However, a search for her dissertation thesis on scholar.google.com yields no hits.* She is frequently represented as an attorney, and has even given paid legal advise to Venezuela’s propaganda office in the US. Again, even this has been cast in doubt in early 2005, and it seems she had been disingenuous about her legal credentials. Apparently later in 2005 she was, however, registered as an attorney.

However, the shoddy quality of her legal analyses regarding Honduras strongly suggest to me that she has never been close to a doctor’s hat in any discipline. Unless it was made of tin foil, possibly.*

I am not talking about her political “analyses”, as in this piece, “Honduras: A Victory for Smart Power”. That text is opinion and guesswork, not fact and logic. The hilarious thing is that she congratulates president Obama, her “enemy”, for something he didn’t do. And she does not give the Hondurans credit for something that they actually did do, namely to take their destiny in their own hands.

No, when I talk about shoddy quality I mean this blog article, “Coup d’Etat Underway in Honduras”. In it Golinger clearly states that the Supreme Court of Honduras (CSJ) had ruled the poll that president Zelaya was planning illegal. Small wonder, as I don’t think there is a single country in which it is legal to hold a Constituting Constitutional Assembly, since that implies abandoning the existing State. However, this seems to completely escape the alleged juris doctor.

Her substandard fact-finding is also evidenced by this statement in the same sentence: “[Honduras] has a very limited constitution that allows minimal participation by the people”. She propably has never read their constitution. It is anything but limited in sheer size, being one of the longest in the world, and the republican form of government is rather similar to that in her native USA.

This leads me to question her academic competence. She looked (albeit superficially) at the facts, and drew the wrong conclusion from a legal point of view. She apparently lacks the intellectual tools for carrying out a legal analysis based on the law. Either that, or she choses not to deploy them.

Although no thesis showed up on scholar.google.com, there were several books written by Golinger. They all seem to deal with criticism of the US for its interventionist foreign policy, and defense of Bolivarian Venezuela for its policy. While some of the criticism – or even much – of the US may be justified, she seems to have developed a case of paranoia. To think that the US was behind the events in Honduras is clearly not a sign of sanity. Her twisted description of reality is tragic.

The many revoked visas suggest a certain degree of displeasure in Washington visavi Tegucigalpa, which totally seems to have escaped Golinger. Conversely, there was a proposal in Tegucigalpa of throwing out the US from their country since they did not trust the gringos any more, now that Obama seemed to side with Chavez. The real reason why Washington did not go further in pressuring Tegucigalpa was probably that Micheletti was squeezing back, in a place where Obama felt it. Not that they supported the legal action taken.

On the other hand, Golinger is unquestionably defending Chavez, even though evidence has come forth that he was behind the murders at the airport, and the staged media propaganda both there and in El Paraiso (1,2,3,4,5,6). But why shouldn’t she? After all, Chavez did use her as a mouthpiece for attacking the US, calling her “la novia de Venezuela”, ‘Venezuela’s girlfriend’, and she was and is a paid hand in Chavez’s propaganda machine. This year she got hired as editor for the English language edition Correo del Orinoco International, a leftist newspaper launched in 2009 and financially backed by the Venezuelan government.

To sum up, some on the Internet has Eva Golinger as a cross between a political prostitute and Tokyo Rose. I don’t know if that is true or not. But if it were true, it would be quite a defamation. Of Tokyo Rose.

* Update 2010-07-13: After Eva Golinger has pointed out that she is a registered “attorney” I started researching the US legal education system and realized that a US “JD” is something completely different than a Swedish “JD”. No wonder she has no research skills; a USAmerican Juris Doctor has never done any research. Golinger’s education is a basic 2-year law education. In my Alma Mater, the basic education at “Juridicum” is 4.5 years, and a Juris Doctor must study nominally 4 more years after that (but the real average is longer), a big part of which is taken up by original research (just like any other doctor, including yours truly). So, I was way too hard on her above. She probably just lacks the academic training to be able to make the analysis.

Honduras: The Big Picture

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

The deposing of the president of Honduras on June 28, 2009, has been interpreted in different ways by different groups. In this article I would like to offer the bigger perspective, and show how each of the other discourses fit into the bigger picture.

The world stage 2010. USA and military allies in dark green, ALBA in red, former member Honduras in white, informal allies in orange, and Latin American democratic ALBA-friendly governments in pink. Blue stars mark some US military bases, and the flash is the current war in Afghanistan.

The world stage 2010. USA and military allies in dark green, ALBA in red, former member Honduras in white, informal allies in orange, and Latin American democratic ALBA-friendly governments in pink (click for full resolution). Blue stars mark some US military bases, and the flash is the current war in Afghanistan. Dark grey indicates isolated dictatorships, and light green are non-classified.

Background

Honduras is the second poorest country in Latin America, after Nicaragua, its southern neighbour. A large part of the GDP comes from low-cost manufacturing for the US market, with bananas no longer being number one. The majority of the population lives below the poverty line. The other year, the Swedish government classified Honduras as the second most unequal country in the world, after Guatemala, its western neighbour. The present democratic constitution is from 1981. In that year an election was held during the last military rule, and the democratically elected president took office in 1982. The constitution is the longest surviving one in Honduras history, and it contains strict formulations to make new coups impossible. Yet, in 2009 the president was deposed. Honduras says it was because he tried to do a coup d’état and ran afoul of those strict prohibitions, while the rest of the world says that his deposing in itself was a coup d’état.

The arguments

Zelaya’s original argument

President Zelaya, elected in 2005, wanted to help the poor people. They were being suppressed by the rich, and they had no democratic influence. The only way in which they could get influence was to write a new constitution, by holding a Constituting Constitutional Assembly (and thus throw out the old constitution).

Comment: this is exactly what Chávez and several other presidents in ALBA have done.

Counter-argument

Nobody has explained in which way the existing constitution is to blame for the poverty, nor has anyone proposed what the new constitution would look like, or why a constituting assembly is required. The existing constitution can be changed by the elected representatives in Congress, and the president can propose changes – but he never did! There is only one relevant article that cannot be changed: The prohibition for the president to be reelected. Thus, the purpose of Zelaya’s policy must have been to enable reelection. Why is this important? Read on!

An alternative point of view

The poverty is rather a result of corruption, crime, a dysfunctional legal system, human rights violations, resulting in a somewhat failed State. The way out is to strengthen the rule of law, and the respect for the law. To overthrow the constitution, a patently unconstitutional act, would be totally counter-productive. Instead, the deposing of Zelaya by the rule of law was a good thing, that strengthened people’s belief in the State. The fact that many of his corrupt accomplices are now being prosecuted is a step in the right direction, but the fact that the present president is trying to stop the courts from doing this job is very discouraging. There is unfortunately a misunderstanding in the international community; they are effectively working to undermine the rule of law in Honduras, by pressuring Lobo to pressure the courts not to follow the law as they see it, but rather as the international community sees it (though they are no experts on Honduran jurisprudence).

The accusation that the US was behind the “coup”

This is based on two things: First that the US has supported military coups in Latin America and elsewhere in the past, and second that the US has a military base in Honduras (they are allowed to operate from the Palmerola, aka Soto Cano, military airport). Those making the accusation claim that the US acted to preserve its military base.

However, this is ridiculous on the face of it. First, since it was no coup according to Honduras. Second, since USA denies any involvement. Third, since even those having been accused of being behind the “coup” claim that USA made it clear in advance that Obama would not recognize the interim president, no matter how legal the procedure to replace Zelaya was. This stance was formulated by Senator John Kerry, according to my source.

Although in Kerry’s defense, he might just have been under the impression that there was no legal way to depose Zelaya, but that they were talking about a coup, the reason being that Honduras does not have the institution of impeachment. Rather, the president can be prosecuted and dealt with by the courts just like any other person.

ALBA

The arguments of Zelaya sound plausible for many, but they are not his real motivation. During the election campaign he received some $50 million from a South American country. They were transferred via a bank in El Salvador. Once in office he sent them back, but the money was returned. The message was clear: We don’t want your money, we want you to follow our orders.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who the money came from.

Chávez has oil millions, he started the ALBA political block, and he is anti-USA. Someone also contributed money to the election campaign of Rafael Correa in Ecuador, who once elected threw out the US military base from that country, changed the constitution so he could be reelected, and joined ALBA. When Evo Morales was elected president in Bolivia he, too, changed the constitution and joined ALBA. Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua also joined ALBA, and plans to change the laws so he can be reelected. Chávez, of course, already has changed “his” constitution.

ALBA is an anti-USA alliance named after Simon Bolivar. It has been suggested to become a military alliance, and it belongs in the far left politically. Although Chávez calls it a socialist revolution, it is probably more accurate to call it communist. They are armed by Russia and have contracted to get nuclear technology from Iran.

The hidden agenda

International politics is about influence. One way to get that is to project power. As is evident from the above map, USA and Russia (following the tradition of the Soviet Union) use different methods. Look for instance at the Guantanamo base on Cuba. USA retained that after the war with Spain. It is thus irrelevant who is running Cuba at present. Just like the colonial powers of  centuries past had fortresses around the coasts of Africa and India, surrounded by other countries, USA has military bases in other countries surrounded by sometimes friendly, sometimes hostile nations.

Russia does not. Instead, they have “sold” top modern fighter jets to Venezuela, apparently intended to be operated by Russian pilots if they are ever needed.

As we see, the US strategy does not depend on the colour of the government in the country. It can be a democracy that shifts policy every 4 years, doesn’t matter. USA maintains control of its military resources.

Russia, on the other hand, is using a strategy that hinges on that the government remains faithful to Moscow. This does not work well in a country where the president cannot be reelected.

I think I need to say no more. It is pretty obvious why the Honduran constitution had to change, from Moscow’s perspective (and this explains why an alleged Russian agent was spreading anti-Honduran propaganda in the US press, doesn’t it?).

You know, I suspect that the real strategist behind this is Fidel Castro. The whole game plan seems so based on the Cold War strategy that he knew so well. And no wonder he wanted Barack Obama elected president; he must have figured out that he would not dare to stop him by using a military coup, so by just playing Obama into a corner where any attempt of stopping Zelaya would even appear to be a military coup, Chávez would win. However, he didn’t know the Hondurans, the proudest little nation in the world last year.

Honduras security

The attackers have far from given up. They try to get the head of the supreme court deposed so that they can alter the composition of the court. They also want Zelaya’s corruption charges counted as political crimes, so that they will be covered by the political amnesty extended to all in January 2010 (against the will of the vast majority of the Honduran people, but forced on them by the international community as a condition for recognition). With those two things in place, Zelaya could return and continue his work with overthrowing the form of government, whether he is working as an agent for Venezuela, Cuba, or Russia itself.

Honduras value lies in two fields: First, that they could get rid of a US base there. Second, that they could make the country a base for themselves instead.

It is clear that the presence of the US military base does not make Honduras safer; quite the opposite. It is the very reason why attacking the country’s democracy and sovereignty is so attractive for the communists.

In light of this, one might ask if it wouldn’t be in the interest of both Honduras and USA to discontinue the Palmerola base in Honduras, and instead equip and train the Honduran military to carry out the necessary drug traffic control. Or perhaps some other arrangement, as long as it does not involve a US base on Honduran soil, because that is a democratic weakness. A strong democracy in Honduras, that does not attract attacks from anti-democratic forces, also seems in the US interest.

Another key factor is to decrease the social tensions in Honduras. The elite has got the message. They have understood how their behaviour has undermined the safety of their country. The time for compromise and a new social contract is now. The poor have never had a better opportunity to negotiate, but they need to talk to their countrymen, and not listen to the foreign agitators and their Quislings.

Honduras is at a cross-roads. There is a good way to take, and a bad. But one thing they should not do. They should not listen to the international community. They should sit down in a closed room and make peace between themselves, and then stand united without any foreign influence. That is the meaning of free, independent, and sovereign.

Propagandan tog skruv även i Sverige

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

I onsdags morse publicerade Second Opinion en artikel jag skrivit om hur media misslyckats med att genomskåda propagandan* om Honduras (Redaktionerna föll för propagandan). Redan samma dag på eftermiddagen tog fallet en ny vändning som till och med gav mig ståpäls.

En av dem som mest ihärdigt spridit anti-honduransk propaganda i USA avslöjades som en rysk spion: Vicky Peláez (jfr DN).

Men vad har Ryssland med Honduras att göra, undrar kanske vän av logik. Så här är det. Propaganda är ineffektiv om det framgår vem avsändaren är. Det gäller att se till att budskapet ser ut att komma från en oberoende, tredje part, enligt branchens grand old man, Bernays (”Propaganda”, 1928). Därför är det bättre att en till synes respektabel journalist skriver det i en respektabel tidning som El Diario, än att Hugo Chávez harklar ur sig det i sitt TV-program “Hallå presidenten”.

Detta för oss från Honduras till Venezuela, men inte till Ryssland. Titta emellertid på denna karta från en tidigare bloggartikel:

Röda länder är medlemmar i den socialistiska Amerikanska Bolivarianska Alliansen, ALBA. Världspolitiskt är ALBA lierat med Brasilien, Ryssland och Iran. Honduras lämnade ALBA den 13 januari 2010.

Röda länder är medlemmar i den socialistiska Amerikanska Bolivarianska Alliansen, ALBA. Världspolitiskt är ALBA lierat med Brasilien, Ryssland och Iran. Honduras lämnade ALBA den 13 januari 2010.

Både Ryssland och Iran har avtal om samarbete med Venezuela inom det militära, och inom kärnkraft. Det handlar om köp av materiel, tekniköverföring, och experthjälp. Till exempel har Venezuela köpt toppmoderna ryska stridsflygplan som de saknar piloter till. Samtidigt har Ryssland åter sänt en flotta till Karibien. Man kan misstänka att planen är avsedda att flygas av ryska piloter.

Det kan också uttryckas så att Ryssland har stationerat stridsmaterial på Venezuelas område. Varför säger de inte bara det? Enkelt; de har ju kritiserat USA för att använda militärbaser i Colombia. Det skulle vara alltför skenheligt om Chávez öppet hade gjort likadant med Ryssland istället.

I praktiken är av allt att döma Venezuela, Ryssland, liksom Kuba och Iran alltså allierade mot USA. Detta förklarar bättre engagemanget mot Honduras demokrati. USA hade tills härom året 3 militärbaser i Latinamerika: Kuba, Honduras, och Ecuador.

Den i Ecuador stängdes efter att Chávez skyddsling Rafael Correa kastat ut dem (uppgifter förekommer att Chávez finansierade Correas valkampanj genom FARC, knarkgerillan i Colombia, ett land som ligger mellan Venezuela och Ecuador).

Basen på Kuba, Guantanamo, finns kvar, men Castro-regimen hävdar att den saknar laglig grund.

Basen i Honduras, känd som Palmerola även om den officiellt är omdöpt, ville Zelaya stänga (även hans valkampanj finansierades, till tonen av miljontals dollar enligt flera oberoende källor, från Sydamerika). Den är viktig för bekämpningen av kokainsmugglingen till USA. Ungefär hälften av kokainet går genom Honduras.

Ur ett strategiskt perspektiv skulle det hjälpa Ryssland om USA tvingades lämna Honduras. Det kan också handla om påtryckningar; Ryssland vill nog helst att USA lämnar flygbaserna i Centralasien. Kanske Putin tänker att det bästa sättet att få bort amerikanarna från hans närområde är att ge dem problem i deras närområde.

Ur svenskt perspektiv är det viktigt att notera att Brasilien är på samma sida som Venezuela, Ryssland och Iran i detta propagandakrig. Genom att brassarna säger sig vara spekulanter på JAS Gripen binder de fast svensk utrikespolitik på Rysslands sida mot Honduras.

De enda länder som hela tiden varit på Honduras sida, och då bara bakom lyckta dörrar, är Colombia, Panama, Israel och Taiwan. I tre av fallen är det enkelt att se varför: Principen är helt enkelt att min fiendes fiende är min vän. Syrien och Kina är allierade till Venezuela, och fientligt inställda till Israel respektive Taiwan. Colombia är ju Chávez älsklingsfiende som bekant. Panama är kanske det land som mest öppet försvarat Honduras, och sagt att det inte är en militärregim utan att militären betett sig föredömligt.

Som vi ser handlar det alltså om storpolitik, ett kallt krig bedrivet med propaganda. Lilla fattiga Honduras hamnade mitt i skottgluggen, men till deras heder gav sig inte president Micheletti trots att ett (på ytan) enat världssamfund pressade på. Slumpen gjorde honom till president, men hans agerande gjorde honom till landshjälte.

* Propagandan säger att det var en militärkupp i Honduras. Se förra artikeln för mer info.

Brownshirt operation in Tegucigalpa

Friday, May 21st, 2010

Update May 21, 2010, 15:23 – A German-Danish revolutionary-romantic, Johannes Wilm, has made a documentary about this attack, called La Joven Revolución Hondureña (The Young Honduran Revolution). The footage follows the organizers before, during, and after the operation. We can see in the video several of the persons involved in destroying the fast food restaurant. There are two student organizations involved, FUR and FRU (also known as FRUM it seems). The students had committed to show up with 150 persons, and an organization of workers with another 150. The video shows how they blocked the main road past the university, a 4 lane road, with burning tires, and how they planned to run into the university and change shirts to disappear when the police showed up. The video does not seem to show how the car below was set on fire, but in a split second a person in red shirt is seen carrying a big bat, around that time and place.

Original post August 6, 2009, 00:16 – During Wednesday a mob created a roadblock outside UNAH, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras. A group calling itself F.R.U., Frente de Reforma Universitaria (Front for University Reform) has claimed responsibility. According to the police they broke windows and burned a car. They did not let independent journalists photograph or videotape them, but called them “golpistas” (coup-makers) and broke their cameras. The police dispersed the mob with water cannons and tear gas, under an intense bombardment of stones.

According to F.R.U., though, it was students who were demonstrating peacefully, just to be chased away into the university campus. Once there the rector came out, arms in the air, to make peace but beaten by the police, it is claimed. The burning car is blamed on a tear gas grenade.

Burning car outside UNAH, Tegucigalpa

Burning car outside UNAH, Tegucigalpa

A closer examination of F.R.U., whose logotype leads the thoughts to Maoism and North Korea, shows that the website has had only 8935 visitors, that there are only a few posts on the discussion list (all read only a dozen times and none having got any comments), and that all of them are written by the same person, who is anonymous and hidden behind a gas mask. There is nothing that suggests a political platform, or any physical persons behind the alleged organization. There is, however, a link to TeleSUR’s webcast, the propaganda channel of Chávez.

Protesters at UNAH. Do these look like students to you?

Protesters at UNAH. Do these look like students to you?

Given that the protesters also look to old to be students, and as if they have arrived from outside, the conclusion can only be one: It was a brownshirt operation, the usual suspects that Chávez hires, in collusion with TeleSUR, the satellite TV channel of Hugo Chávez based in Venezuela.

Luckily most media in the world seem to have started to understand that there is something fishy about the reporting by TeleSUR, so very few have picked up on this story. An exception is Al Jazeera.

I Accuse Hugo Chávez of Conspiracy to Murder

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Already January 31st I presented the evidence, but since nobody seems to have noticed, I’ll present them again with a more direct headline. A video (see below) released by the “resistencia” itself, contains footage from outside the airport on July 5th, the day that Zelaya was allegedly trying to return by airplane. As I reported July 8th, Hugo Chavez had apparently planned for riots resulting in a martyr being created.

While the Zelaya-supporters accused the military of having shot a young man in the neck, my forensic analysis of the video tells a different story. Analyzing the spectral content of the sound of the shot, as well as the echoes in combination with the terrain and surrounding buildings (the images gave away the location), I was able to conclude that shots were fired in the field of view of the camera below.

Screen shot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby, with a double echo.

Screenshot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby in the video.

The young man was killed very close to that place, but the exact location is unknown, since the rioters moved the body before the police could secure the crime scene. Furthermore, it is impossible to know if one of the shots fired in the video was the one that killed him. But this is not relevant.

Based on the evidence we now have, we can conclude that someone was carrying a gun, firing it among the rioters. The 19-year old victim was hit in his neck, i.e., from behind, while he faced the airfield. The soldiers on the airfield were not armed with live ammunition (see air photo below for location).

The inferred location of the shooter based on the estimated location of the camera, and the echo paths, the longer of which is shown.

The inferred location of the shooter based on the estimated location of the camera, and the echo paths, the longer of which is shown.

We also have the photo evidence of Hugo Chávez, which revealed that he planned this. Although we cannot say who pulled the trigger, we can deduce that Venezuela’s president Hugo Chávez planned the murder. His stated purpose – on the whiteboard – was to create a martyr, and unfortunately many of the bloggers in the world fell for the trick.

This is a time domain plot of the sound on the video with the inaudible echo (1) and the audible echo (2) indicated.

This is a time domain plot of the sound on the video. First comes the directly transmitted sound from the explosion, followed by an inaudible echo (1) and an audible echo (2). The x-scale shows sample number, with 44100 samples per second. The y-scale is sound pressure in arbitrary units.

Here is the propaganda video from which the above scene was taken (see this post for a comment on its other content):

Chávez, ETA, cocaine, terrorism, and Medusa

Monday, March 22nd, 2010

Half a year after Zelaya was deposed as president in Honduras June 28, 2009, most Europeans had long since forgotten about it. Thinking it does not concern them.

They are wrong.

Honduras is one battlefield in a war. Perhaps one day we will be able to say that Honduras was the El Alamein, or the Stalingrad, of Hugo Chávez. However, most people are not even aware of what this is all about.

Basically, it is a conflagration of ideology and narcotics. Cocaine in this case.

Cocaine has several useful properties: It is extremely addictive; it makes the drug addict willing to take much larger risks than normally; it also makes him or her more willing to violate ethical, moral, and legal norms, including to commit murder; and due to being illegal, it can fetch a very high price.

Thus, cocaine is the commercial (although illegal) commodity of a business, while at the same time being a mind-altering drug that contributes to enable the people involved in the business to violate laws and moral norms.

However, most people cannot be made to act contrary to their deep-held moral beliefs regardless of drugs. That is where ideology comes in.

The ideology is the pretext, the excuse, that is required. It is the discourse that turns white to black and black to white, so that decent people can commit horrific acts without being destroyed by their conscience.

This is a network with links to governments, to guerillas/terrorists (depending on which side you are on), and to drug cartels. As written by Marianella Salazar, there are links between the FARC narco-guerilla in Colombia; the Chávez government in Venezuela; the ETA terrorist organization in Spain; and to Honduras.

Honduras is a critical point on the smuggle routes to North America. Since there is no road connecting South and North America, the drugs have to be transported either by boat or plane at least to Central America. A large number of such planes land in Honduras, and as has been reported in social media, reporting these flights to the proper authorities seems to have no effect – and may even be detrimental to ones longevity. Rumors from Honduras say that Zelaya was and remains involved. Half of all cocaine reaching the U.S. has passed Honduras according to recent estimates.

Another export from Venezuela goes to Europe. A recent study in Stockholm, Sweden, conducted by analyzing the sewage water, estimated that one in 1,000 were using cocaine. In London and Rome the percentage is higher.

The Europeans who use cocaine are also enabling the murders, the cynical use of people, the destruction of societies, and the perpetuation of poverty in Latin America.

It is not an organization but a network, which also branches out to Iran and islamist extremists and terrorists. It is a network that wants no attention to it. Journalists that get too close are murdered; Mexico has in 2010 taken the position as the most dangerous country in the world for journalists, with Honduras as second.

Just like Medusa this network has many tentacles, and if any journalist looks too closely at it, little will remain of him but a gravestone. To defeat this Medusa, potential consumers – i.e., future drug addicts – have to be educated, before they try the drug the first time, about the horrible monstrosity that is hiding behind the chemical. But then again, that means that journalists must look at the monster…

Zelaya to become political leader of PetroCaribe

Sunday, March 7th, 2010

Venezuela’s president and former military coupster Hugo Chavez has offered Honduras’ deposed president Manuel Zelaya the post as head of a newly formed political council in the PetroCaribe organization. PetroCaribe was formed to sell oil from Venezuela to poor countries in the Caribbean and Central America under very favourable credit terms.

A number of news stories talk about Zelaya becoming the head of PetroCaribe, but I have only found one in English, a Russian site, that is stating that he is to head a newly formed political council. Given how close Venezuela and Russia are, especially in PR (i.e., “Propaganda Related”; cf. e.g. how Pravda and Chavez both claimed that the U.S. had caused the earthquake on Haiti; weapons deals; presidential visits; etc), I’d keep an open mind to the possibility that it is the Russian source that is the correct one. When searching in Spanish this was seemingly confirmed by this Cuban site.

Zelaya’s role will be to “promote democracy.” We all know how well that went in his native Honduras, where he was found by the Supreme Court to be acting to overthrow the democratic constitution in place since 1981, and deposed by Congress after the court had ordered his arrest. He overstepped an article (239) that leads to immediately ceasing to be president, and he did so after the court had issued an injunction for him not to do so. Those who claim that his removal was a coup because he has the right to due process are thus misinformed; due process was followed, why it was no coup.

When PetroCaribe was formed, the critics - or conspiracy theorists if you prefer - said that it would become an instrument for putting political pressure on the members who were indebted to Chavez. The idea is not new, and now it seems that they are openly laying their cards on the table by creating this political council, intended to get involved in what is happening in the member states politically.

It has been expoused how the west uses that strategy with the world bank system (e.g., in “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man“): Put a country in debt, and then demand that they follow your will, or else. Those leaders who are so obstinate that they don’t give in not matter what arm-twisting is employed, are eliminated. The basic idea is to lend money to Third World countries to put them on the hook, making sure they cannot pay it back, ever. Those negotiating the loans have a bonus pay, so they get more bonus the more they can inflate the loan. This is not supposed to be public information, so the employee who told me made me promise not to reveal his name. However, I can deduce that it is true from other evidence. I once was asked to put a price tag on a project in Honduras, so I asked a Swedish colleague with many years expertise in exactly that field. However, the bank was very unhappy, and wanted me to inflate the price by a factor ten or so. In other words, the strategy is as follows:

Finance a project with a loan, give favorable interest (one to a few percent), but inflate the price so much that the project will never be profitable. It is important that the profit is taken out of the Third World country by giving the job to a First World company. This way the country stays poor and indebted for ever, while the cost for the rich county is not all that high since the money just goes around and quickly comes back into the national economy.

What Chavez – perhaps in cohorts not only with Cuba but also with Russia – is doing is not to duplicate this strategy, but to create another version of it. Chavez does not have coffers full of money, but he has oil. Instead of providing money he provides oil.

It does seem, though, that his plan is not all that well thought out. He is in fact lending money, since he is not getting paid until later. And unlike the world bank projects, the money does not immediately come back as income for Venezuelan consulting and construction companies. Chavez is actually providing something of value. He is, however, taking this from his citizens, the people of Venezuela. His country is going downhill rapidly, with hyperinflation, water shortages, electricity shortages, and security problems.

In short, the PetroCaribe plan has turned out not to be sustainable. Perhaps that is why Chavez has decided to openly try to cash in on it now, before the economy completlygoes belly up.

His political plans have already stalled; it started with Honduras stopping Zelaya’s coup attempt, and continued with a right-wing president being elected in Chile. Also Argentina and Brazil may loose their left-wing regimes soon according to opinion polls. The wind in Latin America seems to have shifted against him. When his economical power base now also is failing, Chavez has little choice but to act as swiftly as possible, before his chances are gone for good.

Zelaya has already proven that his attitude is “full steam ahead, damn the torpedoes” – even when there is nothing but torpedoes ahead. The question is how far can a conflict go? If it was just Venezuela and ALBA, there would be no worry. Although Venezuela has some of the best Russian-made fighter planes, they have no pilots trained on them, and not even manuals in Spanish. How many Venezuelan pilots read Russian?

However, Russia has decided to send its fleet back to the Caribbean. And Cuba has Spanish-speaking pilots who have studied Russian. Plus, what stops Putin from having Russian pilots flying the planes? USA allegedely had American pilots fly planes painted in Israeli colors during the 1967 war (although nobody has claimed they flew combat missions). By placing top-modern Russian war equipment in Venezuela, Russia has the equipment on stage so to say, in case a conflict would get ignited. Hopefully this is defensive in nature, and not offensive, even though Chavez did threaten war against Honduras, and keeps doing so against Colombia.

This may just be a sign that a new Cold War might be sailing up off Florida. What is a country like Honduras to do in this scenario?

My best advice is to not trust either side, but to seek out a neutral road of self-reliance. Nobody is thinking about Honduras’ well-being except Hondurans. Neither Obama nor Chavez has anything good to offer Honduras (beyond trade, of course). It is time that the country stopped pandering for recognition, stuck to its laws, and started working diligently on its own long-term economical plan.

Footnote: There are also ALBA loans for buying oil from Chavez. Zelaya used them, and so does president and former dictator Ortega of Nicaragua. The purchasing president only pays a fraction of the price to Venezuela, but sells it at full price. The remainder is a long-term loan, like 25 years. It sounds very similar to the PetroCaribe loans, and I am not sure what difference – if any – there is. Zelaya tried to convince the private sector in Honduras to get on board with this, arguing that 25 years is an eternity, so they didn’t have to worry about ever paying it back. They refused, though, wisely. The cash that this deal generates for the president is used as an illegal source of political cash, and is employed for corrupting the political process. While Honduras stood up to this corruption attempt, Nicaragua is now the next target, and only time will tell if it will succeed or not.

Chávez, Honduras, and the new Cold War

Saturday, February 13th, 2010

It is well known in Honduras that Venezuela’s president Hugo Chávez was front and center of last year’s political crisis. In the parallel universe that is international news media, notably AFP, EFE, and Reuters, Chávez has, however, nothing at all to do with Honduras. TeleSur I don’t even count as news, it is simply propaganda, just like “FOX News,” albeit on the opposite end of the new cold war; a media and propaganda war that has Venezuela – Iran – Russia as one axis, and the traditional allied USA – UK as the other pole.

Some articles and bloggers ridicule the notion that Chávez was behind the crisis. Be very wary against any media that ridicules that, since it is easy to show that it is factually correct. There can only be two reasons to ridicule it: Either a high level of ignorance, or willful propaganda. In either case it should raise a red flag for that media outlet in the reader’s mind.

Let me just give you some examples out of the literally hundreds. Chávez threatened war against Honduras in response to something that is clearly a Honduran domestic matter, something that did not threaten international peace and security. If in doubt, consider this: The UN Security Council never took up the issue of Honduras. Nobody reported Honduras to the Security Council, and although Honduras reported Venezuela’s war threats, they didn’t take it up for the sole reason that the UN did not recognize the Micheletti government.

The days before Zelaya was deposed, many tried to talk him out of pursuing his plans for holding a so-called poll which the Supreme Court had ordered that nobody was allowed to partake in (there was an injunction against it; later they tried the case and found it illegal). To one of these persons, who tried to convince him to listen to the Hondurans, Zelaya replied “After God, Chávez!”. In other words, he cared less for what those who elected him said than what Chávez said.

When Zelaya made the infamous attempt to return in an airplane belonging to Venezuela, Chávez has been exposed as having planned the event with the purpose of creating martyrs. I recently got hold of a video from another perspective that day, and could conclude by analyzing the sound (spectrum and echo) that at least one of the demonstrators was firing a gun. It has previously been shown how TeleSur in cohorts with armed demonstrators tried to make it appear as the military was firing on the demonstrators, the second time that Zelaya staged an “attempt” to return (he could have returned any time he wanted, the issue was just that he didn’t want to get arrested, that’s why he stayed away).

There is evidence of several kinds that many demonstrators on the red side were paid. There is photo evidence that Rafael Alegria, a leader of the self-denominated “resistance,” handed out dollars to them. There is a notebook with sums in it that appears to indicate who got what to hand out; Alegria got $5,000 according to it. There is evidence from the banks that significant sums of dollars were introduced into circulation on the days of major red demonstrations (in the tens of thousands of dollars).

Manuel Zelaya did not have that kind of money; I have heard from several sources, in his campaign and in banks, that he received large campaign contributions from South America. He tried to pay back after winning the election, but the money was not accepted. They wanted his services, not the money. In fact, he led a rather modest lifestyle before he became president. The extravagance that we have seen lately, and that the Dominicans are now paying for, was financed with money intended for the poor in Honduras. That is why several countries cut their aid to Honduras when Zelaya was president.

There is essentially one person who had both motive and opportunity to spend that kind of money on those demonstrations: Hugo Chávez. There could be a second interest in the drug cartels, of course, since by binding the police and military resources in controlling demonstrations, they get the countryside free for smuggling cocaine. In Zelaya’s home region of Olancho the drug smuggling has increased a lot the last few months, since the drug czar was murdered. It is reported that about half a dozen planes a day leave their cargo on clandestine fields. The general wisdom in Honduras is that they fly from Venezuela. However, it seems that Chávez is pretty close to the Colombian narco-guerilla FARC, who may well be behind this, so even with this alternative explanation the compass needle swings back to point at Chávez in the end.

It is not hard to see why Hondurans – as most Latin Americans – consider Chávez the driving force in Zelaya’s attempt at overthrowing Honduras’s Constitution. His open support of Zelaya with words and money cannot be dismissed (this support was only terminated when they realized that it created a PR problem for Zelaya, since Chávez’s own approval rating internationally fell drastically when it turned out that Chávez’s generals had given Swedish RPGs to FARC, a group that the EU classifies as terrorists).

Honduras was another one of Chávez’s projects for spreading his so-called “Bolivarian Revolution” to all of Latin America. All his previous attempts have succeeded (e.g., Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia), but in Honduras he met his first defeat. Of course, nobody is expecting that he will give up so easily – Honduras is prepared for new assaults on its Constitution and democracy. However, there may be a new front opening in this cold war: Venezuela.

Chávez’s increasing tyranny, with media closures, expropriations of companies, expropriation of hundreds upon hundreds of family-owned farms without due process and without compensation (so he can give the land to the thugs that he uses to enforce his policies), and abolition of the institutional liberal democracy, undermines whatever popular support that once brought him to power in democratic elections.

The opposition in Venezuela has taken a lesson from the opposition in Iran, and is using Twitter, much to Chávez’s chagrin. Unfortunately for the Venezuelans, they allowed the dismantling of the constitutional democracy to go too far. It is now an uphill battle to restore it.

Although Honduras was the first country in this wave of spreading authoritarian rule that successfully halted the threat to democracy, there are more countries in line. Nicaragua is the one in most imminent danger now.

One can only hope that the lesson they take from Honduras is that it is possible to stop the assault on democracy, and that it is worth the price. Also, chances are that the next time some country is forced to depose of a president to save democracy, they will have at least one ally to argue their case before the international community, namely Honduras. They have been there, done that.

Of course, it would be better to revise the mechanisms of diplomacy so that not just the head of state has a voice, but that also the checks and balances of each country (typically the Supreme Court and or Congress) are recognized by the United Nation, so that they can come to the General Assembly and make their case, in situations when the head of state has been deposed. That would be a simple adjustment to make, I would presume.

Propaganda-video about Honduras

Sunday, January 31st, 2010

A propaganda-video against the democratic government of Honduras has been uploaded to the Internet today. Here it is:

I am the first to criticize the police when they use unnecessary force, which some of them clearly did, e.g. outside the stadium after the football (soccer) game in July. Those acts must be investigated and prosecuted to the maximum extent possible, to establish an example.

However, the raw footage often shows the police and – especially – the military exercising admirable restraint in the face of violent demonstrators, who are using potentially deadly weapons by throwing heavy rocks at them. They should get credit for that, and the demonstrators – or rather, rioters – should be criticized for their violence, too. But the video is completely biased in that respect. Not a critical word against those who disturbed the public order.

The voice also makes a number of factually incorrect statements. First of all that it was a coup; the removal of Zelaya from office was in response to him attempting a coup, as I have shown in this blog, e.g. here. Also the number of people who showed up at the airport is exaggerated, by a factor 100 or so (5,000 was mentioned as recently as 3 days ago in international pro-Zelaya media, but the video says 500,000). The images shown seem to be from another occasion.

Towards the end the voice falsely accuses the police and military of having taken the universities. In reality, rioters gathered outside the university, and ran into it when the police came, while wantonly destroying private property, such as a car and a fast food restaurant. The video is practicing Orwellian newspeak.

A lot of the footage doesn’t tell much of a story at all, but there is one interesting part early on: From the airport, when Zelaya and Chávez tried to create a martyr. A man who is interviewed in the video says that the soldiers had blanks (the military say they had rubber bullets), and that only the officers had live ammunition. He therefore concludes that the young man who was killed by a bullet in his neck was shot by an officer.

However, it is interesting to listen to the sound from the video, where they were throwing stones (7 minutes in). There are many explosive sounds that appear to be from somewhat distant gunfire, judging from the suppression of the high frequency part of the spectrum. However, at about 7:50, 7:59, 8:02 etc there are explosions with the high frequency part of the spectrum preserved, indicating an origin quite close to the microphone. Moreover, the 7:50 explosion clearly has an echo. An acoustic analysis might be able to indicate where the presumed shooter was standing.

Just for the heck of it, I analyzed the sound in a computer program. The delay of the audible echo is 0.19 to 0.20 seconds. The air temperature on that afternoon was about 25ºC, so the sound velocity would have been ca 346 m/s. This translates to a distance of 66 to 69 meters. This is the distance by which the path gun – echo-object – microphone is longer than the path gun – microphone. Since we can see from the image where the cameraman is standing (at 7:30 he is in the median outside the Popeye restaurant, moving south), we can guess that the echo is from the buildings on that side of the street.

However, when looking at the sound waveform it turns out that there is also a strong echo after only 0.059 seconds, corresponding to 20 m. Taking that into consideration, my guess is that the shooter was in front of the camera in the picture below, some ten meters off the wall, among the rioters marked with a yellow oval.

Screen shot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby, with a double echo.

Screenshot from 2 seconds before a shot is heard nearby in the video.

Of course, one would have to do a test shot and record the sound at that location, to determine with certainty where the shooter was standing. But, it seems highly unlikely that those three shots were fired by the military inside the airfield. This of course opens for the possibility that the young man who was shot dead died from a bullet fired outside the airport, by a rioter. If so, Chávez got what he wanted.

PS. Also the Amnesty International report is very thin on facts, the shooting mentioned in this video (just after the incident above, and allegedly with the producer of the video carrying the victim) being one of about 4. Actually, AI fails to mention any case that has already been solved. That, and the fact that they call it a coup without any attempt at justification, shows that it is a biased report. Much of the text is irrelevant since it does not relate to the political reality on the ground in Honduras. AI would be well advised to focus on how best to contribute to a better human rights situation, rather than to play politics and alienate those they are trying to influence. The report seems written to appease donors rather than to actually contribute to human rights.

Later posts on this subject: I accuse Hugo Chávez of Conspiracy to Murder, Did the Propaganda Director Witness Murder?, Zelaya’s propaganda director has blood on his hands.

Chávez’s “Ragnarök” may be approaching

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

The countdown to the final destiny of Venezuela’s de facto dictator Hugo Chávez may well have begun in the high halls of heaven. His grand plan was interrupted prematurely by the totally unscripted heroic deed of Honduras, where the Attorney General, the Supreme Court, the National Congress, and the Military Forces, in an unexpected feat did their duty to perfection (and a little bit beyond, in the latter case).

In a similar way, Adolf Hitler’s grand plan was interrupted prematurely when Britain honored their promise to Poland, and declared war after Nazi Germany invaded the Slavic nation (that coincidentally had financed much of Germany’s “economical miracle” with loans). Hitler’s armament plans were incomplete. He would not have his high seas navy ready until in 1942. The premature start of the war, from his point of view, may have been what caused him to loose it.

We must never forget how popular Hitler was in the 1930’s. It wasn’t until he took Czechoslovakia by betrayal in 1938 that his superstar status started to fade.

In a similar way, Hugo Chávez has gained a superstar status in European press. The warning signs have been ignored or dismissed. When Chávez tried to take over Honduras through his point man Zelaya, and the democratic institutions stopped it, the world sided with Chávez even though he threatened with military force both before and after the deposing of Zelaya. However, the event did offer an indication to Europe that Chávez was not the person they had thought.

Another warning came a month later, when it was discovered (and first reported in Sweden on this blog) that Swedish-made shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles, AT-4, that had been delivered to Venezuela almost 20 years ago had ended up in the hands of the leftist narco-guerilla FARC in Colombia. Within hours, Sweden stopped all weapons exports to Venezuela.

Further alarm was raised when Chávez made a tour to countries such as Syria and Russia, in a bid to acquire tanks, jet fighter planes, medium range missiles, and nuclear technology (from Iran). It became obvious that he was setting the stage for an axis against the usual allies, the U.S., the U.K., and other western democracies; no longer just a Latin American axis from Cuba to Tierra del Fuego, but a global axis that seems to have as only rule that “an enemy of my enemy is my friend”.

Hugo Chávez seems to have a propaganda ministry that is more ambitious and effective than that of Josef Göring himself. His talking points can be read in blogs in virtually all western countries, in many languages. He has to his disposal an international TV news network, Telesur, which is now cooperating with Al Jazeera.

This brings me to the last sign of the impending downfall. These news outlets and their appendages in the blogosphere are peddling totally ludicrous accusations against the U.S. in relation to Haiti. When it came to Honduras they accused the U.S. for the “military coup”, even though (1) the U.S. had informed ahead of time that they would not recognize whoever became president if Zelaya was deposed, and (2) it was no coup since the democratic institutions acted within the constitution in deposing Zelaya. Still, at least the accusation was plausible on its face.

But when it comes to Haiti, they accuse the U.S. of occupying the country militarily, and – and this is the tin-foil hat part – of having caused the earthquake in the first place.

If anybody reading this believes that it could be possible, I can assure you, as a geoscientist, that it is not. You might as well accuse them of having taken down the moon. It is as out-of-this-world lunatic as those who suggest the Antarctic was Atlantis “when it was ice free there 13,000 years ago”. Scientific evidence shows that it has been completely ice covered for 5 million years. Get my point?

So why does Chávez’s ministry of propaganda go out with something so outlandish? I can only think of one explanation: Desperation. The opportunity is starting to slip through his fingers, so he becomes desperate, just like Hitler did.

Yesterday’s demonstration against Chávez in Venezuela illustrates that his days may be counted. The danger is though, that he does something dramatic to hold on to it. This is not the time to let down the guard for that golpista.

Hugo Chávez: Jag är marxist

Friday, January 15th, 2010

I sitt årliga tal till nationen sa idag Hugo Chávez, Venezuelas president, att han är marxist, enligt El Nacional. Han har av många anklagats för neo-kommunism, men har hittills alltid själv försäkrat att han är demokratisk socialist (ej att förväxla med socialdemokrat, vilket är något helt annat).

Chávez ideologi kallas av sympatisörerna “socialism i XXI:a århundradet”, och projektet “den Bolivarianska revolutionen” efter en gammal Latinamerikansk hjälte, som dock knappast var socialist. Hans motståndare kallar ideologin för chavism, i vilket de även lägger att hålla sig kvar vid makten genom skumma val och tvivelaktiga förändringar av grundlagen.

Media: DN.