Tag Archives: Obama

USA needs OAS more than Honduras does

Honduras president “Pepe” Lobo has gone to great extremes to placate OAS so the country can be allowed back in. In the process he seems to have lost almost all support at home.

Already before he was inaugurated he went overseas and signed a paper that said that the deposing of Manuel Zelaya, in an arrest ordered by the Supreme Court for violating the Constitution, was a coup d’état. This was his first major mistake.

For 7 months interim president Micheletti had held the moral high ground by insisting that Zelaya had committed an autogolpe (a self-coup) and that his deposing was constitutional. He had done so under international isolation and sanctions. He had taken over a country without a budget, with ransacked coffers, and all credit in the banks that Honduras was and is a member of was frozen. Yet, in spite of governing over a bankrupt country he held the hill, the moral high ground, to the very end.

The end came not the day that Lobo was inaugurated, but a couple of weeks before when he called the event on June 28th a coup. At that time Micheletti graciously stepped back, refrained from criticizing Lobo, and instead ceded to the president-elect. From the people, on the other hand, a roar of fury went up. Especially, of course, from those who had voted for him.

The others, led by Zelaya, just said “so he is a golpista, now he has admitted what we knew all the time.”

The strategic blunder of giving up the high ground and getting nothing in return was just mind-boggling.

The next precipitous fall in grace came about 10 minutes after he had sworn his oath of office. When giving his inauguration speech he thanked Honduras enemies, those who had harmed the country, but in spite of calls from the audience for him to thank Micheletti – who had made his election possible – he did not do so. At that point half the audience rose up from their seats and left the stadium in protest, according to a blog by an employee of the US embassy. This was hidden from the TV audience, since the cameras stopped panning over the galleries.

I would venture to say that Lobo probably set a new world record in losing support quickly after an election.

Today one would be hard pressed to find someone who defends his policies in Honduras. The redshirts see him as a golpista, and the whiteshirts see him as either a fool or a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

In fact, that is a position he shares with the US ambassador, Hugo Llorens, who is believed by some to be the one who dictates to Lobo what to do and not to do.

Lobo has bent over backwards to be allowed back in to OAS. He seems willing to go as far as to talk about holding a constituyente, even though that is completely anti-constitutional in Honduras, and he risks running afoul of article 239 in the Constitution – the one that says that an elected official who even suggests reforming certain paragraphs in the Constitution immediately loses his office.

But why? Why does he spend so much time and energy to please people like Hugo Chávez, Zelaya, and Insulza, even though it is obvious to any child that there is nothing, NOTHING, that Lobo can say or do that will please them.

Why doesn’t Lobo instead spend all his energy on transforming Honduras into a modern capitalist entrepreneurial country, ready to compete with the world on the global marketplace – but with a socially responsible face?

Maybe the answer is that USA is controlling Lobo, and USA needs the OAS. There are many regional organizations in Latin America that Honduras is a member of, and that can replace OAS, but OAS is the only one that the US is a member of. It is the strategy of Chávez to isolate the US from Latin America by making OAS obsolete.

If Honduras would turn its back to OAS it would contribute to making OAS obsolete, and thus isolate USA. That’s why Obama is so desperate for Honduras to return to OAS.

But is it worth the price?

I’d say no. Honduras and USA would be better off creating a new partnership, with Canada and other countries that truly are for democracy – unlike, as we have seen, OAS under Insulza.

Time for a new course. Stand proud, Honduras, and stop trying to placate your enemies, Obama!

Why the Dems may lose Miami -> Florida -> USA

This year Florida will elect a new senator, in a three-way race between the Democrat Kendrick Meek, the Independent Charlie Crist, and the Republican Marco Rubio. Chances are slim that Meek will win. This is usually attributed to Democratic voters voting for “anybody who can beat Rubio,” but there may be another factor that the pundits have missed.

It is the traditional Achilles heel of the Democrats: Softness on foreign policy. The one causing the dissatisfaction was not Meek, but president Obama, secretary of state Clinton, and Senate foreign relations committee chairman Kerry. And the constituency group that this particularly affects are the Latinos.

Keep in mind that Miami is a Latino city, predominantly. And that Miami is big enough to flip the vote in all of Florida one way or the other. And that Florida is big enough to flip the national vote of president one way or the other – but I’m sure nobody will ever forget that.

Obama did get a significant support by Latinos in 2008, but that support has completely dissipated by now. There may be several reasons, but it seems to me that one reason in particular has not been getting the attention it deserves: Obama’s Latin America policy.

The crucial issue is Honduras

Actually, Honduras is just the tip of the iceberg, the overall issue being the spread of communism in Latin America, which the Democrats seem to do nothing to stop. In fact, it appears to many as though they actually like this change. And that is a sure way to lose voters in Miami…

The different perspective does not come from a difference in world view, but in a difference in information. Latinos typically watch Spanish-language news, the biggest of which is of course Univisión. These networks cover Latin America closely, while English-language networks give about the same amount of coverage to Latin America as they give to Mozambique, or Mongolia, or the Moon for that matter. When it comes to foreign countries about 99% of their coverage has been devoted to Iraq and Afghanistan the last few years.

When the president of Honduras was deposed on June 28, 2009, it therefore came as lightning from a clear sky, for the English-speakers in the U.S. Naturally, they believed the network when they said it was a military coup. They had no reason to think otherwise. English-speaking Democrats either agreed with Obama’s policy, or thought he didn’t go far enough.

Latinos (and others who prefer Spanish-language news due to it having higher quality), on the other hand, knew that a severe political crisis was playing out in Honduras. They knew that the president was openly defying the Supreme Court, the popularly elected Congress, all other institutions of government, and that he was leading a mob against his own military. They had heard over and over that he was suspected of carrying out an auto-golpe, and they knew that he was ignoring the checks and balances of the constitution. They also knew that several other presidents in Latin America had done the same thing in recent years, and that nobody had stopped them: Chávez, Correa, Morales.

When Honduras stopped Zelaya, many, if not most, Latinos in Miami considered it an anti-coup rather than a coup. Honduras became “the little country that could.” Virtually overnight, Obama-stickers disappeared from almost all cars in Miami.

When it comes to Latin America, Washington is rather ignorant. It is clear that at least some of them believe the outrageous lies and spin, no matter how lunatic it really is, that is being prepared by Hugo Chávez and signed by Mel Zelaya. Perhaps they haven’t realized that Mel sold his soul to Chávez to the tune of tens of millions of dollars. Or perhaps they don’t understand what Chávez is up to. Or else, perhaps they haven’t been able to come up with a counter-strategy, so they just stall for time. Who knows.

Meanwhile, unless Obama clearly changes policy visavi Honduras within the next two weeks, my prediction is that Miami will vote for Charlie Crist. Marco Rubio is probably too extreme for the majority (“miamians” may be fiscally conservative, but they are socially progressive), so in an effort to make sure that he won’t win, I figure that many Dems will vote for Crist.

If Obama’s present policy continues for two more years, chances are it will be his last in the White House.

The option

What option does Obama have visavi Honduras? First and foremost, he must clearly distance himself from the outrageous lies that Zelaya is spreading. Secondly, he must make it clear that he understands that,

  1. the Supreme Court of Honduras had the legal authority to issue an arrest order for the president,
  2. there was due cause for the Supreme Court to issue that arrest warrant on June 26,
  3. that the military in Honduras is constitutionally authorized to carry out tasks only done by the police in most other nations (and that it was Zelaya who started using the military for police work on a systematic scale),
  4. that the expatriating of Zelaya was a crime, but that the expatriating of Zelaya does not in any way relieve Zelaya from responsibility for the crimes he carried out before being expatriated,
  5. that the behavior of the security forces during and after the expatriation of Zelaya has been the target of systematic demonization by a deliberately executed and very refined propaganda apparatus, directed by Venezuela’s ruler Hugo Chávez,
  6. that the interim president Micheletti did all that was in his power to maintain public order and security, and to safeguard human rights, in spite of an onslaught of attack by foreign agents, paid demonstrators, and vilification in international media,
  7. that the Attorney General did prosecute the military for the expatriation of Zelaya, and that the Supreme Court did take up the case, but dismissed charges, and
  8. that the Supreme Court of Justice, democratically and constitutionally selected, is the highest legal authority in the country, which means that their rulings are the final word in the matter, as regards the sovereign Republic of Honduras.

A speech to this effect would serve several important purposes: First, it would win back at least a part of the lost support among Latinos who don’t want to see communism take over their native countries. Second, it would assure Hondurans in Honduras that the world has not gone completely mad, and that the rule of law still is the principle upon which civilization is built. Third, it would send a message to president Ortega in Nicaragua that USA has not thrown in the towel to Chávez, so he better stop his plans for an auto-golpe.

Finally, and most importantly, it would set a firm base of law for negotiating a new social pact in Honduras. The spread of popular tyranny in Latin America can be stopped by making it clear that a “constituyente” (i.e., overthrowing the constitution and letting a few more or less self-appointed persons write a new one without democratic input) is totally unacceptable, and that stopping a constituyente by any legal means possible is not just acceptable, but the duty of all who have sworn an oath of office to defend the constitution.

Whatever Obama does, he has to evaluate the strategy carefully, as a seasoned chess player would. Unless he recognizes that Chávez is actively waging a cold war against him, he will stand no chance. Nor will the position of the United States of America in the World.

Beam me up, there is no intelligent life in USA

The so-called birthers in the US claim that president Barack Obama was not born in USA and thus cannot be president. That’s not what makes me want to be beamed up. It’s the democrat’s response that makes me think there is no intelligent life in USA.

The birthers’ argument is that since Obama has not shown a birth certificate from a US state (i.e., Hawaii), he is not a US citizen, and thus he is ineligible to be president according to the US Constitution, article 2, section 1. Just now Ed Schultz had a debate on MSNBC with one of those, and the only argument he made was that it had been shown that Obama was born on Hawaii.

But so what?

The US Constitution, article 2, section 1 says in the relevant part: “No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

It does not mention a requirement to be born within the boundaries of the US, it just mentions being a natural born citizen. Any child born to a parent who is a US citizen is a natural born citizen of the US, but so far, I haven’t heard a single person making that self-evident argument on TV. That is why I doubt that there is intelligent life in this country.

The last provision, that the president must have lived at least 14 years in the country, clearly indicates that the drafters of the constitution envisioned that someone who had lived even the majority of his or her life abroad should be qualified. Although it is not explicit, it could indicate that they were having in mind children of USAmericans born abroad, who returned to their fatherland as adults.

Assume that the birthers’ interpretation had been right. That would mean that there would be two classes of natural born citizens; those with full citizenship rights, and those without. That is an entirely untenable position, from a Human Rights-perspective.

The ignorance of people in this country never ceases to amaze me. Beam me up!

Honduras as Obama’s Czechoslovakia

Today, when interim president Micheletti has decided to step aside and leave the public space for the elected president Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo, it may be appropriate to consider the historical significance of his time at the helm.

In 1938, the until then free, sovereign, and independent country of Czechoslovakia was sacrificed on the altar of the elusive “Peace for our time,” as British foreign minister Neville Chamberlain infamously put it, in the Munich betrayal. Nazi Germany subsequently pressured the Czech Prime Minster to give up his country’s freedom, and he did, knowing that they stood alone, abandoned by the world.

Where and when Barack Obama promised Hugo Chávez that he could take over Honduras on June 28, 2009, without opposition from the U.S., is not in the history books. Witnesses say, though, that the U.S. ambassador to Honduras, Hugo Llorens, around June 23 or 24 vowed not to recognize Honduras, if the other branches of government were to stop the coup d’état planned by Chávez’s Quisling, Zelaya (i.e., an autogolpe).

Obama and Chavez.
Obama and Chavez in April 2009.

However, although equally abandoned by the world, Honduras did not follow the example of Czechoslovakia.

They stopped the coup on June 28. The Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for the president for violating the constitution and valid decisions from the other branches of government, and the Congress replaced Zelaya with Micheletti within hours. A virtually united world demanded that the coupster be reinstated, and started punishing the democratic government.

For 7 months Micheletti has faced down virtually the entire world, in defense of his country’s freedom, independence, and democracy. Never before has the population stood so steadfastly around its president.

Except, of course, for the revolutionary clic that aspired to overthrow the government with foreign assistance. In fact, just the other day they reaffirmed their decision to overthrow the government and constitution, according to their webpage. Given the tens of millions of dollars they have got from Chávez, who can blame them? It’s a well-paying gig to be a traitor in Honduras these days.

It is also much less risky than the alternative method of getting rich quick: Smuggling drugs. As a narco-trafficker you are on your own, but as bomb-throwing revolutionaries the entire global human rights-establishment is backing them up, unfortunately. It’s a sad fact that the latter community has allowed themselves to be manipulated to the “wrong side of peace.”

Yesterday Pepe Lobo signed a deal that would allow Zelaya to leave, and not have to face justice. Micheletti held his peace in respect for the vote of the people, but the people is today up in arms over what they feel is a betrayal on part of Pepe. Time will show if he manages to get the people behind him, but Micheletti is a very hard act to follow. He managed to get a hero status among big sectors of the population.

What we see from this is that politics is complicated, and public opinion is a difficult thing to try to please. However, there are still court cases that can bring out the truth and settle the crimes (unless Pepe’s amnesty gets in the way), and then there are the university scholars, who with time will analyze the events from all possible and impossible angles. So my advice to anyone who has to chose between a narrow path or an easy road is this:

You just have to do the right thing,
and circumstances will change before your eyes.
Things aren’t always what they seem to be.

With time, doing the right thing will always be rewarded. Just make very sure that it is the right thing that you do.

Obama okayed leftist coup d’état for “peace”

It is easy to understand why the Obama administration was trying to isolate Honduras, by closing diplomatic relations, not letting them explain themselves in the UN, and revoking visas for everyone who knew what had transpired last june 28. It is easy to understand when you learn that the Obama administration had given a green light to Chávez-supported Zelaya to commit a coup d’état in Honduras.

Consider that it is not just decision-makers and influential persons in the private sector who have got their visas revoked lately. Also civil servants have now got their visas revoked, according to media reports from the country. These may have worked for the government for years, and their “crime” is not to have resigned, not to have given up their income. That is reason enough for the Obama administration to punish them by revoking their visas, so they can no longer visit friends and family in the U.S. It doesn’t make any sense – unless the true purpose of the revocation is, precisely, to prevent them from visiting friends and family.

It will not in any way, shape, or form alter Honduras’ foreign policy. So why do it? Why antagonize people both in the U.S. and in Honduras?

The simple truth is probably that the U.S. is ashamed of what it did in Honduras. Obama doesn’t want anybody from Honduras who knows what he did to visit the U.S., without first incriminating themselves, by forcing them to admit that they were at fault. Even though they weren’t. It’s like a Dan Rather-case all over again.

Maybe you ask, what stops them from talking to American visitors to their country? Simple, the travel warnings, the un-necessary travel warnings that keep most Americans away for no good reason – except to hide Obama’s shame.

I have written extensively about the events on this blog, but to sum up: The elected president, Manuel Zelaya, was carrying out a coup d’état that would have been completed June 28 last year. He did this with the support of Venezuela’s de facto dictator and former military coupster Hugo Chávez, and with Insulza from the Organization for American States, OAS. All of these approved of the blatant violation of the Constitution of the Republic of Honduras, and of ignoring the separation of powers. Obama through his ambassador Llorens also knew, and tried to convince Zelaya not to carry out the coup d’état. However, he made a fundamental diplomatic error, a blunder of the same proportions as Chamberlain with his “peace for our time.”

Obama refused to back up his words with force.

In fact, he went even further – he vowed that if the democratic institutions tried to stop the coup d’état, he would side with the would-be dictator Zelaya, and denounce the democratic institutions as coupsters. Exactly what happened.

Word in Honduras (from someone whose visa has been revoked) is that it was senator Kerry who set this policy. Obama has no foreign policy experience. Why he didn’t consult Hillary Clinton is beyond me, she seems to have a lot more balls than either Obama or Kerry. Regardless of who advised him, Obama is responsible.

So here we are, the Republic of Honduras as the champion of the rule of law and the defense of constitutional democracy, while the U.S. is so ashamed they are hurting innocent persons just to avoid having the facts get out.

What will happen next? The truth always gets out in the end. There are numerous court cases that in one way or another hinge on the legality of what happened June 28, 2009. When courts start making their decisions, the lies will crumble. That is why the U.S. is in such a hurry to get this case off the agenda, into the history books, where the truth can’t hurt them any more.

In case you wonder what the justification was for the U.S. to revoke the visas, such as for the cabinet members in this last round, it is another lie: That Honduras has not adhered to the Tegucigalpa/San José Accord that was signed as a result of the Guaymuras dialog.

Here is my challenge to Obama: You have a person in the verification commission that is overseeing the implementation of the agreement, Solis. Show me the minutes from that commission’s meetings, show me the complaints that it was not being implemented, and show me the decisions of the commission. Until you do that, your words are empty and lack credibility. There is a process established, and if you yourself do not adhere to it, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Show me the minutes or shut up.

The verification commission of the Guaymuras agreement. From left Corrales, Lagos, Rico (from OAS), Solis, and Reina.
The verification commission of the Guaymuras agreement. From left Arturo Corrales (representive for the government of Honduras), ex president Ricardo Lagos from Chile, Victor Rico (representing OAS which coordinates the commission), labor secretary Hilda Solis from USA, and Jorge Arturo Reina (representive for the deposed president Manuel Zelaya).

Footnote: Given that the verification commission is coordinated by OAS, an organization that supported Zelaya’s coup d’état, I have no illusions that it will be forthcoming with protocols that reveal that the agreement was broken by Zelaya, not Honduras.

Update 21:20 ET: The president elect, Porfirio Lobo, has today signed an agreement in the Dominican Republic that includes creating a unity government, letting Manuel Zelaya leave Honduras as a free man on January 27th immediately after he takes office, and working for amnesty for all. I suppose there are some who are genuinely afraid of what might be revealed in a court hearing. Hondurans have not forgotten that Lobo was for the plan for changing the constitution. It has been suggested that the inauguration gift from the Honduran people should be a pajamas, so that he never forgets who he works for. [See negative reaction in Guatemala]

The outgoing president, through the Minister of Indstria y Comercio, Benjamin Bogran, said, “la posición del Presidente Micheletti, es respetar las decisiones que tomé don Porfirio Lobo como nuevo Presidente, y el pueblo lo eligió como su presidente, por lo que confiamos que sus decisiones tomadas serán las mejores, pero las leyes también se respetan. Esperamos que sea lo mejor para Honduras.

In translation, “The position of president Micheletti is to respect the decisions taken by Mr Porfirio Lobo as the new president, given that the people elected him as their president, why we have faith that his decisions will be the best, but that the laws also will be respected. We expect that this will be the best for Honduras.”

Addition 21:40: Swedish news agency TT, together with AFP, continues to peddle the lie that the regular presidential election in November, held every 4 years since 1981, was an extra election. See, e.g., SvD, DN. It goes to show how far the propaganda has gone, that it is virtually impossible to get mainstream press to stop spreading a lie once some goon has managed to get it planted. AFP has clearly demonstrated a total lack of journalistic integrity when reporting about Honduras. It is noteworthy that these Swedish newspapers do not correct their text even when they are repeatedly being told that they are wrong.

Honduras timeline

This timeline is based on previously published information on this blog, with only some minor new facts taken into account. The tentative chain of events has been recreated by combining pieces of the puzzle from different witnesses and documents. Updated 2009-09-22 08:30 ET.

June 24 – President Manuel Zelaya dismisses the head of the armed forces, Velasquez, because he – correctly – obeys the court and refuses to obey illegal orders from the president.

June 25 – Zelaya issues decree PCM-019-2009 about the vote that has already been declared unconstitutional, and thus violates article 239 in the constitution which leads to immediately loosing his elected post. Zelaya’s act is a crime against the form or government, i.e. the constitution, and this high crime is aggravated by the fact that he accepted help from a foreign power.

ditto – the Supreme Court of Justice declares the dismissal of Velasquez illegal and that he thus remains in duty.

ditto – the Supreme Court of Justice seizes the illegal voting material and charges the military with guarding it.

ditto – the Attorney General requests  that the Supreme Court of Justice issue an arrest warrant for Zelaya.

evening – leading persons in the business community are informed about the secret arrest order, confirmed by several witnesses (its existence was even implied to yours truly on that date, why I know this is not a post facto construction). Nobody has been able to say for sure that the US ambassador Llorens was informed, but he reasonably must have been, given that he was informed on 4 to 5 occasions during these days about what was going on,* and he was the single most important person to inform to avoid diplomatic problems.

late evening – a businessman and friend of Zelaya visits him and reveals the existence of the arrest order. Zelaya is acting in despair, says “I’ll resign” and, according to this eye witness, writes a letter of resignation.

night – Chávez finds out about the arrest order, presumably because Zelaya calls him after his friend has left. Judging from what happens next, Chávez persuades Zelaya not to resign after all.

June 26 – Zelaya gathers a large mob and leading it he breaks into the military base and physically takes the impounded voting material from the military base. The military refrains from shooting to avoid a blood bath.

ditto – the Supreme Court of Justice issues a new arrest warrant, after decree PCM-019-2009 (and PCM-020-2009) becomes known by the prosecutor. Source.

ditto – Chávez went out in a frontal assault in the media accusing the US of conspiring to carry out a military coup in Honduras against Zelaya. These media charges continued for days using extremely strong words, including threats of intervention in Honduras, until Zelaya wasa arrested, and for days afterwards.

June 27 – by nightfall the military has planned how to execute the arrest order. They inform the speaker of the Congress, Micheletti, about 5 to 6 hours in advance. The military decides to send Zelaya in exile instead of arresting him (knowing full well the illegality of it, but motivating it by necessity).

June 28 – in the early morning Zelaya is arrested and sent into exile.

ditto – the resignation letter that Zelaya wrote on the 25th is found and shown in Congress. They decide almost unanimously to accept his resignation. The one in turn to take over according to the order of succession, the speaker of the Congress, is nominated. He is elected interim president with almost no opposition.

ditto – since Chávez was warned and threatened intervention, extreme precaution was exercised in arresting Zelaya. They had information that armed foreign agents were present in the country. To make it hard for them to mobilize, the communications were shut down. This included shutting down or controlling media so no mobilization message could be broadcast. It also included shutting off power so that phone systems or internet could not easily be used by them. The task was accomplished without any loss of life, but the precautions amplified the impression of a military coup. Within hours the international public opinion was cemented, diametrically opposite to what actually happened: That the freedom and democracy of the country had been saved from a Quisling.

June 29 – the entire UN General Assemply, under the chairmanship of D’Escoto, a veteran from the Sandinista revolution, votes to condemn the “coup” and to demand that Zelaya is returned to power. In spite of the US reasonably being aware of the arrest order from the court, Obama chooses to play along and call it a coup. One can only guess that he has realized that Chávez has the upper hand in the propaganda war, and chooses to bide his time, hoping that Honduras’s democracy will survive for a few months without the support of USA.

*Footnote: Ambassador Llorens told the fathers of the constitution that Honduras should allow the vote to go forward even though a court had found it unconstitutional. USA thus not only did not help to conduct a non-existent coup, they actually helped Chávez undermine the constitutional democracy of Honduras.

Honduras election will be recognized

Panama announces that it will recognize the president who is elected on Nov 29 in Honduras, and who takes office of January 27, 2010, provided that the elections are fair and transparent. At the same time, it is announced that the mayors of Guatemala City and San Salvador will be observers during the election.

The interim government of Roberto Micheletti has as its main goal for its short existence to make sure the elections are fair, transparent, and that the elected president gets internationally recognized. For this same purpose it was reported yesterday that four of the six presidential candidates, those that signed on to the San José accord, will be traveling to the US in the next few days to meet with the Obama administration regarding the issue of future recognition.

It seems to me that Obama is looking for a way to recognition that does not involve saying that there was no coup, although he must be aware that it was not a coup. The only other exit for him is if someone else takes the lead to reveal the truth, but so far no country has seemed willing to make the argument in the face of Chávez’s powerful propaganda machine (case in point: Chávez accuses Obama of the “coup in Honduras” although Chávez knows full well that [a] it was no coup, and [b] Obama was not supporting the events, on the contrary).

USA is waging Cold War on Honduras

An editorial in the Washington Post writes about Obama’s decision to pressure Honduras to re-instate Zelaya as president, by cutting aid and visas:

“The administration’s action was not without risk. If the Micheletti regime digs in its heels, the result could be the very destabilization that the United States and its moderate allies hope to avoid.”

Given that the vast majority of Hondurans, all major presidential candidates in the upcoming elections, and all branches of government including the Supreme Court, support the country’s policy, no informed observer can reasonably believe that the pressure from the United States of America will lead to Zelaya being re-instated as president.

The Supreme Court of Justice of Honduras has in effect declared that Zelaya cannot be re-instated. What the United States of America is aiming for is therefore, in practice, nothing less than to defeat the sovereignty of the Republic of Honduras.

To defeat a sovereign nation without resorting to open war is called Cold War. The strategy has been said to be invented by Adolf Hitler, who successfully applied it to Austria and Czechoslovakia. Soon after, the Soviet Union applied it to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and – without success – to Finland, a country that heroically defeated the superpower in the Winter War, using inter alia Molotov cocktails.

It is true that the US government has not instigated the conflict like Germany and the Soviet Union did. However, the US ambassador to Honduras knew about the political developments leading up to Zelaya’s treason that got him ousted, and did not prevent the escalation of the conflict.

Obama wants to mend relations to Latin America, and for that reason he cannot let a coup d’état stand. However, since Zelaya was no longer president when he was expelled, having violated §239 of the Constitution, there was no coup.

What the US should do is to contribute to making the truth known, and – privately – to advice Zelaya to resign peacefully in return for amnesty, at least for his political crimes. That would be the wise thing to do.

But as Axel Oxenstierna wrote back in 1648, “If you only knew, my son, with how little wisdom the world is run.”

PS. Here is an English blog from inside Honduras, revealing how Zelaya is openly declaring his intent not to abide by the peace accord if he is re-instated: La Gringa’s Blogecito

Lösning möjlig i Honduras

Uppdatering 15:47 ET – Reuters rapporterar att ett nytt brev från USAs utrikesdepartement, skrivet igår men känt först idag, antyder en mjukare hållning från Obama. Brevet säger att USA inte stödjer en viss politiker, utan Honduras demokrati. Reuters skriver också att “Högsta Domstolen beordrade [Zelaya] arresterad och den honduranska kongressen godkände senare hans avsättande.” Även om det kan synas som en formuleringsdetalj så avslöjar detta ändå att vinden håller på att svänga till förmån för Honduras folkvalda kongress. Obamaadministrationen är utsatt för påtryckningar från republikanska senatorer som helhjärtat stödjer Honduras linje, och lägger hela skulden för det inträffade på Manuel Zelaya och Venezuelas president Hugo Chávez.

Ursprunglig text 13:51 ET – Enligt en uppgift på twitter, publicerad av Tegucigalpa-tidningen El Heraldo på deras websida, kommer Barack Obama att försöka övertala Manuel Zelaya att acceptera det senaste förslaget från Oscar Arias, dock med undantag för punkten att Zelaya skall bli återinsatt som president. Detta är den enda punkt som Honduras inte på villkors vis säger sig kunna acceptera, så om USA går med på att släppa den innebär det ett oerhört framsteg.

Om detta är riktigt så kan det bara vara en tidsfråga innan Honduras nya president blir internationellt erkänd. En kvarvarande komplikation är dock att flera av Honduras självständiga institutioner, till exemepel högsta domstolen, kan ha problem med att gå med på den amnesti som skulle krävas. Diskussioner pågår just nu om det är möjligt att bevilja amnesti innan någon blivit dömd, eller åtminstone formellt åtalad.

Originaltext: Acuerdo. El ministro de la Presidencia, Rafael Pineda Ponce, aseguró que el presidente de EE UU, Barack Obama, se encargará de convencer a Zelaya para que acepte el acuerdo de paz, pero que lo excluya de volver a la Presidencia. 07:35 -6.

Denna twittertext är också citerad i tidningens artikel här.